000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060335 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 09N89W. The ITCZ continues from 09N89W to 08N105W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 12N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 06N to 08N between 95W and 100W, from 07N to 10N between 115W and 120W, and from 07N to 11N between 127W and 131W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N to 18N between 116W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds and seas continue to diminish across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Currently, fresh to strong N winds and seas to 8 ft are noted N of 15N between 94.5W and 95.5W. Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California under the influence of high pressure ridge, with seas of 5-7 ft due to long-period northwest swell. Across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft primarily to due a long-period northwest are noted. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are in the central and southern Gulf of California, with seas of 2-4 ft. Mainly light and variable winds with seas less than 2 ft dominate the northern part of the Gulf. For the forecast, a weakening cold front that now extends over the northern Baja California will dissipate tonight into early Tue morning. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds in the Gulf of California Wed night into Thu as high pressure builds across the Great Basin. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed through Fri night. Winds may reach to just below gale-force early on Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region, downwind to near 88W. Peak seas with these winds are up to 7 ft. Light to gentle northeast to east winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough along 07N, with seas of 5-7 ft. Light to gentle south to southwest winds along with seas of 3-5 ft due to a northerly swell mixing with south swell are present to the south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle south to southwest winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 3- 4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected in the Papagayo region mainly at night through Wed. Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters through late Wed, except in the Papagayo region. Northwest swell generated from the Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to spread through the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight while subsiding. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extends from northern Baja California to 28N119W, then continues as a frontal trough to 24N132W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are behind the front/trough. Seas behind these systems are 6 to 7 ft in a long- period northwest to north swell. Elsewhere, high pressure controls the wind regime north of 16N and west of about 110W. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate tonight into early Tue. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front. The associated gradient is expected to lead to moderate to fresh trade winds in the west-central waters. By Tue evening, expect an increase in winds and seas across the west- central waters as high pressure strengthens N of the forecast region. These marine conditions are expected to persist beyond Thu. Currently, model guidance suggests fresh to strong trade winds and seas building to 9 or 10 ft. A surface trough, within the ITCZ, is forecast to move westward between 120W and 130W over the next 48-72 hours. $$ GR