000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Dec 05 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 07N90W to 07N99W to 07N015W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N115W to 10N125W to 07N134W and to beyond the area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm between 137W-140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 123W-129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A morning ASCAT pass depicted strong to near gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas with these winds are in the 8-11 ft range.These seas are spreading well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far southwest as to near 11N100W. The morning ASCAT pass also indicated that the swath of fresh to strong northeast that surrounds the strong to near gale-force extends as far west as 100W. light to gentle variable winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California under the influence of high pressure ridging, with seas of 4-6 ft due to long-period northwest swell. Seas are currently peaking to 8 ft near 30N120W. Across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft primarily to due a long- period northwest are noted. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are in the central and southern Gulf of California, with seas of 2-4 ft. Mainly light and variable winds with seas less than 2 ft dominate the northern part of the Gulf. For the forecast, a weakening frontal boundary will continue to approach the Baja California Norte waters today while dissipating. Seas of 6-8 ft in the wake of the front will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia today before subsiding tonight into Tue. Expect fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across the Gulf of California Wed night into Thu as high pressure builds across the Great Basin. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed through Fri night. Winds may reach to below gale-force early in Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are observed across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 89W. Peak seas are estimated at 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough along 07N, with seas of 5-7 ft. based on an altimeter pass. Light to gentle south to southwest winds along with seas of 3-5 ft due to a northerly swell mixing with south swell are present to the south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are present between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 3-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected in the Papagayo region mainly at night through mid-week. Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters through mid-week, except in the Papagayo region. NW swell generated from the Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to move across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today while subsiding. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stationary front extends from near 30N120W to 26N130W to 23N140W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds along with seas of 8-11 ft due to long-period northwest swell follow the front. The highest of these seas are noted north of 29N between 120W-130W. Elsewhere, high pressure controls the wind regime north of 16N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of mainly fresh northeast to east winds from about 08N to 21N west of 128W, with resultant seas of 8-9 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate today. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front. The associated gradient is expected to lead to moderate to fresh trade winds in the west-central waters. As the gradient tightens between strengthening of the high pressure and surface troughing that develops over the central waters near 126W by late Tue night, this is expected to increase the aforementioned fresh northeast trade winds to fresh to strong speeds at that time. The 8-9 ft seas may reach 10 ft with these winds. These marine conditions are expected to persist beyond Thu. The surface trough is forecast to move westward between 120W-130W over the next 48-72 hours. $$ Aguirre