000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Dec 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient will continue supporting gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Seas will drop below 12 ft later today. Winds and seas are expected to gradually improve by early Mon. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 08N102W to 08N116W. The ITCZ extends from 08N116W to 07N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N and E of 118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N and E of 104W and from 06N to 08N between 128W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for the gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California as a 1018 mb high pressure remains located near 27N121W. Seas are 4-7 ft within NW swell across the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail in the central and southern Gulf of California with seas 3-4 ft. Light winds are noted over the northern Gulf with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in mixed swell. For the forecast, gale-force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will end by tonight. Seas will drop below 12 ft by this afternoon. Winds and seas will improve over the region on Mon. A weak cold front is expected to approach the Baja California Norte waters on Sun and will dissipate by Mon. This front will bring NW swell across the Baja Norte waters tonight and will quickly subside on Mon. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of California through midweek as high pressure builds across the Baja region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W. Peak seas are estimated at 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough along 08N, with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle S to SW winds and 3-4 ft seas are seen to the S of the trough. Light to gentle S to SW winds prevail off the Ecuador offshore waters to the Galapagos Islands with seas 3-4 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Panama and off the Colombia coast, N of 04N and E of 82W. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo region will pulse across the area through midweek. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters region through midweek, except in the Papagayo region. NW swell generated from the Tehuantepec gap wind event will move across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening stationary front stretches from 30N124W to 21N139W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds with seas to 10 ft are near and north of the front. The front will dissipate today. Its associated swell will slowly subside through Mon night as it moves as far south as 07N. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. A 1016 mb high pressure is centered across the NE forecast waters near 27N121W, and extends a ridge south and southeastward that covers the waters N of 23N between 110W and 120W. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow is noted across the area. Fresh to strong winds are near a trough along 115W from 10N to 16N between 109W and 115W. Seas to 8 ft are likely within this area. A surface trough extends north of the monsoon trough along 123W. Moderate winds prevail in the vicinity of the trough with seas ranging between 6-7 ft. Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted. Moderate SE to S winds winds and seas of 6-7 ft are seen S of the monsoon to the equator and W of 95W. For the forecast, a reinforcing cold front will enter the NW waters later today and weaken by Mon night. High pressure will build across the area through next week. This will strengthen winds to fresh to strong along with building seas across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 120W by Tue through most of the week. $$ AReinhart