381 AXPZ20 KNHC 032046 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Dec 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient will continue supporting gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun night. Seas will build to 12 ft tonight through Sun. Winds and seas are expected to gradually diminish by early Mon. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N79W to 09N119W. Surface trough extends from 12N122W to 08N122W. The ITCZ continues from 08N124W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 104W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for the gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California as a 1020 mb high pressure remains located near 27N120W. NW swell continues to move across the far NW Baja California offshore waters, bringing 8-9 ft seas N of 26N and W of 118W. Seas are 4-7 ft within NW swell elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail in the central Gulf of California with light winds over the rest of the Gulf with 2-3 ft seas. Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in mixed swell. For the forecast, gale-force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to 12 ft tonight into Sun. Winds and seas will improve over the region on Mon. An approaching front will stay west of the area through the day before weakening. The swell accompanying the front will continue to move over the Baja California Norte waters this evening and subside tonight. Another weak cold front is expected to approach the Baja California Norte waters on Sun and will dissipate by Mon. This front will bring another round of NW swell across the Baja Norte waters Sun night and will quickly subside on Mon. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of California through midweek as high pressure builds across the Baja region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 88W. Peak seas are estimated at 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough along 08N, with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle S to SW winds and 3-4 ft seas are seen to the S of the trough. Light to gentle S to SW winds prevail off the Ecuador offshore waters to the Galapagos Islands with seas 3-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo region will pulse across the area through midweek. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Seas will subside modestly during the weekend, except in the Papagayo region. NW swell generated from the Tehuantepec gap wind event will move across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A frontal boundary stretches from 30N127W to 25N136W. Latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh winds with seas to 13 ft near and north of the front. The front will dissipate tonight into Sun. Its associated swell will slowly subside through the weekend and into early next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. A 1020 mb high pressure is centered across the NE forecast waters near 27N120W, and extends a ridge south and southeastward that covers the waters N of 24N between 110W and 120W. This system is producing a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the area. An area of fresh to strong winds has developed in the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 09N to 14N between 105W and 112W. Seas to 8 ft are expected within this area. A surface trough is embedded in the monsoon trough along 122W. Moderate winds prevail in the vicinity of the trough with seas ranging between 6-7 ft. Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted. Moderate SE to S winds winds and seas of 6-7 ft are seen S of the monsoon to the equator and W of 95W. For the forecast, a reinforcing cold front will enter the NW waters on Sun and weaken by Mon night. High pressure will build across the area through next week, which will strengthen winds to fresh to strong across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 120W by Tue through the week. $$ ERA