000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030951 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Dec 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: As the pressure gradient strengthens once again, gale-force winds have resumed across the Tehuantepec region. The pressure gradient will continue supporting gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun night. Winds could increase to 40 kt tonight. Seas will build to 12 ft tonight through Sun morning. Winds and seas are expected to gradually diminish on Mon. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 07N100W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 12N137W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 93W and 114W and from 06N to 10N between 123W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for the gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California as a 1020 mb high pressure remains located near 28N120W. NW swell continues to move across the far NW Baja California offshore waters, bringing 8-9 ft seas N of 28N and W of 117W. Seas are 4-5 ft within NW swell elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail in the central Gulf of California with light winds over the rest of the Gulf with 2-3 ft seas. Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in mixed swell. For the forecast, gale-force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to 12 ft tonight into Sun. Winds and seas will improve over the region on Mon. An approaching front will stay west of the area Sat before weakening. The swell accompanying this front will continue to move over the Baja California Norte waters this morning and subside later today. Another weak cold front is expected to approach the Baja California Norte waters on Sun and will dissipate by Mon. This front will bring another round of NW swell across the Baja Norte waters Sun night and will quickly subside on Mon. Fresh winds can be expected across the Gulf of California later today through Mon as high pressure will build across the Baja region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W. Peak seas are estimated at 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough along 08N, with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle S to SW winds and 3-4 ft seas are seen to the S of the trough. Light to gentle S to SW winds prevail off the Ecuador offshore waters to the Galapagos Islands with seas 3-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo region will pulse across the area through early next week. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Seas will subside modestly during the weekend, except in the Papagayo region. NW swell generated from the Tehuantepec gap wind event will move across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A frontal boundary stretches from 30N128W to 25N138W. A surface trough extends from the low to 24N139W. Overnight ASCAT pass showed fresh to strong winds with seas to 14 ft are near and north of the front. Strong winds will dissipate early this morning with the front dissipating tonight into Sun. The associated swell will slowly subside through the weekend and into early next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. A 1020 mb high pressure is centered across the NE forecast waters near 28N120W, and extends a ridge south and southeastward that covers roughly the waters N of 24N between 110W and 120W. This system is producing a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the area. A 1012 mb low pressure remains embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N119W. A trough extends north from the low to 20N114W. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure to the N supports an area of moderate to locally fresh NE winds from 13N-20N between 115W-121W. Seas are 6-7 ft prevail within these winds. Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted. Moderate SE to S winds winds and seas of 6-7 ft are seen S of the monsoon to the equator and W of 100W. For the forecast, a reinforcing cold front will enter the waters on Sun and weaken along 30N by Mon night. High pressure will build across the area through next week, which will strengthen winds to fresh to strong across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 120W by Tue through midweek. The low pressure along the monsoon trough will pulse in strength through the weekend. $$ AReinhart