655 AXPZ20 KNHC 030354 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Dec 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to near-gale force winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region at this time. The pressure gradient will strengthens once again tonight supporting another round of gale force winds across the area, beginning at 03/06Z. These conditions will prevail through Sun night. Seas will build to 12 ft on Sun. Winds and seas are expected to gradually diminish on Mon. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 08N98W to 09N118W. The ITCZ continues from 09N119W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 12N137W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 17N between 93W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for the gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California as a 1021 mb high pressure remains located near Southern California. NW swell is beginning to move into the far NW Baja California offshore waters, bringing 8-9 ft seas N of 30N and W of 120W. Seas are 4-5 ft within NW swell elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. Light winds and seas 3 ft or less prevail inside the Gulf of California. Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in mixed swell. For the forecast, gale-force winds will develop tonight in the Tehuantepec area and prevail through Sun night. A weakening front will stay west of the area Sat before weakening. However, large swell accompanying this front will move into the Baja California Norte waters tonight bringing 8-9 ft seas that will subside by Sat. Another weak cold front is expected to approach the Baja California Norte waters on Sun and will dissipate Sun night into Mon. Accompanying NW swell will reach the Baja Norte waters Sun night and will quickly subside on Mon. Gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of California will give way to fresh winds Sat night through Mon as high pressure will build across the Baja region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W. Peak seas are estimated at 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough near 08N, with seas of 4-6 ft while moderate S to SW winds and 4-5 ft seas are seen to the S of the trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail off the Ecuador offshore waters to the Galapagos Islands with seas 4-5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo region will pulse across the area through early next week. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Seas will subside modestly during the weekend, except in the Papagayo region. NW swell generated from the Tehuantepec gap wind event will move across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A frontal boundary stretches from 30N129W to low pressure near 28N132W 1012 mb to 25N138W. A surface trough extends from the low to 21N134W. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas to 14 ft are near and north of the front/low. Strong winds will dissipate by tonight, with the associated swell slowly subsiding through the weekend and into early next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered across the NE forecast waters near Southern California, and extends a ridge south and southeastward that covers roughly the waters N of 23N between 115W and 124W. This system is producing a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the area. A 1011 mb low pressure remains embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N119W. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure to the N supports an area of moderate to locally fresh NE winds from 12N-21N between 115W-124W. Seas are 6-7 ft prevail within these winds. Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted. Moderate SE to S winds winds and seas of 6-7 ft are seen S of the monsoon to the equator and W of 120W. For the forecast, the front producing strong NE winds will continue moving southeast across the waters while weakening. Winds will dissipate by Sat morning. The front is forecast to dissipate Sat night into Sun over the northern forecast waters. At the same time, a reinforcing cold front will enter the waters on Sun and weaken along 30N by Mon. High pressure will build across the area through next week, which will strengthen winds to fresh to strong across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 120W on Mon night through midweek. The low pressure along the monsoon trough will pulse in strength through the weekend. $$ AReinhart