000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Dec 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico currently supports a gale-force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Seas are building to near 12 ft. The gale force winds will persist trough early Fri morning. Winds will drop just below gale force on Fri afternoon, extending downwind to about 12N. Winds will increase again to gale force Fri night through Sun night as the high pressure strengthens again across the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds could increase to near 40 kt by Sat night with seas reaching near 13 ft. Winds are expected to gradually diminish Mon and Mon night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Pacific Gale Warning: A frontal boundary stretches from 30N129W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 28N134W to 26N140W. A pre- frontal trough extends from the 1011 mb low to beyond 22N140W. Strong to minimal gale-force winds with seas to 15 ft are near and north of the front. The cold front will extend from 30N130W to 25N140W today and from 30N128W to 24N140W by Sat morning before dissipating. Gale conditions are expected to end very early this morning as the front moves slowly southward. Strong winds will continue today and dissipate by tonight, with the associated swell slowly subsiding through the weekend and into early next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N100W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N117W. The ITCZ continues from 11N117W to 08N130W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 18N between 96W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for the gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California as a 1018 mb high pressure remains located near 28N119W. Seas are 4-6 ft within NW swell. Light winds and seas 3 ft or less prevail inside the Gulf of California. Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec region, mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in mixed swell. For the forecast, gale-force winds will persist in the Tehuantepec area through Sun night, dipping below gale-force for a few hours on Fri afternoon. A weakening front will stay west of the area today before weakening. However, large swell accompanying this front will move into the Baja California Norte waters this evening, bringing 8-9 ft seas by tonight and will subside by Sat. Another weak cold front is expected to approach the Baja California Norte waters on Sun and will dissipate Sun night into Mon. Accompanying NW swell will reach the Baja Norte waters Sun night and will quickly subside on Mon. Gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of California will give way to fresh winds Sat night through Mon as high pressure will build across the Baja region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W. Peak seas are estimated at 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough along 08N, with seas of 4-6 ft while moderate S to SW winds and 4-5 ft seas are seen to the S of the trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail off the Ecuador offshore waters to the Galapagos Islands with seas 4-5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo region will persist trough Sun morning. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected through at least early next week. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Seas will subside modestly during the weekend, except in the Papagayo region. NW swell generated from a significant Tehuantepec gap wind event will move across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador this morning through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for information on the cold front entering the NW forecast waters. A 1018 mb high pressure is centered across the NE forecast waters near 28N119W, and extends a ridge south and southeastward that covers roughly the waters N of 18N between 112W and 130W. This system is producing a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the area. A 1010 mb low pressure remains embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N117W. Shower activity is noted N of the low. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure to the N supports an area of moderate to locally fresh NE winds from 12N-17N between 117W-121W. Seas are 6-7 ft within these winds. Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted. Moderate SE to S winds winds and seas of 6-7 ft are seen S of the monsoon to the equator and W of 120W. For the forecast, the strong cold front producing strong to gale-force NE winds will continue moving southeast across the waters. Winds will drop below gale-force today, with the strong winds dissipating by Fri night. The front is forecast to dissipate Sat night into Sun over the northern forecast waters. At the same time, a reinforcing cold front will enter the waters on Sun and weaken along 30N by Mon. High pressure will build across the area through next week, which will strengthen winds to fresh to locally strong across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 120W on Mon night through midweek. The low pressure along the monsoon trough will open up into a trough by Sat and will continue to move westward on Sun. $$ ERA