000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010325 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Dec 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico tonight behind a cold front will push southward overnight, and support the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Strong northerly winds will begin across the Tehuantepec region during the next several hours, and increase to gale force from early Thu through Fri morning. Seas will build to 9-13 ft during this time. Strong to just below gale force winds are then expected to continue Fri and Fri night, extending offshore to 12N, before winds increase again to gale force Sat through Sun evening as the high pressure strengthens again across the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds are then expected to gradually diminish Mon and Mon night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5 storm-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per cold season. Most gale-force events occurred during November and December, while most storm-force winds occurred in January. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 07.5N93W to low pressure near 13.5N112.5W 1011 mb to 13.5N116W to 10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 81W and 90W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 16.5N between 90W and 116W, and from 07.5N to 11N W 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California to Cabo Corrientes this evening. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in NW swell, except to 7 ft across the far NW waters. Light winds and seas 3 ft or less prevail inside the Gulf of California. Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted. Strong NW to N winds have just reached the coast across the western half of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, a new Tehuantepec gap wind event has just begin tonight. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A cold front is expected to reach the Baja California Norte waters Fri afternoon, then stall and weaken quickly. Accompanying large NW swell will reach the Baja Norte waters Fri evening, with seas building to 8-10 ft N of Punta Eugenia Fri night, before beginning to slowly fade late Sat. High pressure will build across the Baja region Sun night through Mon and freshen the winds across the Baja waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds prevail across the Papagayo region and extend downwind to near 91W. Peak seas are estimated at 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough along 08N, with seas of 4 to 5 ft while moderate SW winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen to the S of the trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail off the Ecuador offshore waters to the Galapagos Islands with seas 4 to 5 ft. Active showers and thunderstorms are seen within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough from SE Costa Rica westward to beyond 93W. For the forecast, fresh gap winds over the Papagayo region will persist into the upcoming weekend, pulsing to strong each night through Sat night, with seas building to 7-8 ft. These winds will extend beyond 90W tonight through Fri, then retract to E of 90W Sat afternoon through Sun. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is expected. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Seas will subside modestly during the upcoming weekend except in the Papagayo region. NW swell generated from a significant Tehuantepec gap wind event will move across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Fri through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1018 mb high pressure is centered across the northern forecast waters near 29N125W, and extends a ridge that covers roughly the waters N of 16N between 110W and 140W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are dominating the area N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted S of the monsoon to the equator and W of 120W. A low pressure is forecast to persist along the monsoon trough between 114W and 118W over the next 48-72 hours and help to focus active weather there. The low will move westward between 120W and 125W by Sat. An area of 6-8 ft seas will move in tandem with the low center. A cold front is approaching the far NW waters this evening. A pre frontal trough has entered those waters, with fresh to locally strong S to SW winds ahead of the trough N of 25N and W of 132W. Seas have built 7 to 9 ft there in fresh NW swell. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm SE of the trough. For the forecast, the pre-frontal trough will move across the NW waters tonight into Thu, preceded by fresh to locally strong SW winds shifting ahead of it. A strong cold front will follow the trough, and will reach the NW waters late Thu into Thu night. Gale force NE winds are expected just N and NW of the area behind the front and may reach near 30N on Thu. The front will then move slowly southward to along 27N by Fri morning. Strong to near gale force NE winds and large seas of 12-18 ft are expected in the wake of the front, which is then expected to stall and weaken considerably by Sat morning. The swell will dominate the waters NW of a line from 30N126W to 25N140W by Fri morning, and Nw of a line from 30N118w to 20N140W by Fri night while gradually subsiding. $$ Stripling