000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302129 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Nov 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico will support the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Strong northerly winds will begin across the Tehuantepec region tonight, and increase to gale force from early Thu through Fri morning. Seas will build to 9-13 ft during this time. Strong to just below gale force winds are expected Fri and Fri night, before winds increase again to gale force Sat through Sun night as the high pressure strengthens some again. Winds are then expected to gradually diminish Mon and Mon night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5 storm-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per cold season. Most gale-force events occurred during November and December, while most storm-force winds occurred in January. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from western Panama to 07N90W to 12N100W to 1011 mb low pressure situated near 14N115W to 09N122W. The ITCZ continues from 09N122W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 100W and 118W, and from 07N to 10N W 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California to Cabo Corrientes. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Light winds and seas 3 ft or less prevail inside the Gulf of California. Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted. For the forecast, NW to N swell dominating the Baja California waters will slowly subside through tonight. A new Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin tonight. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A cold front is expected to approach the Baja California Norte waters around midday Fri and weaken quickly. Accompanying large NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Fri night into Sat, with seas building to 8-10 ft before beginning to slowly fade late Sat. High pressure will build across the Baja region Sun night through Mon and freshen the winds across the Baja waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 89W. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with seas of 4 to 5 ft while moderate SW winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen to the S of the trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail off the Ecuador offshore waters to the Galapagos Islands with seas 4 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh gap winds over the Papagayo region will persist into the upcoming weekend, pulsing to strong each night through Sat night. These winds will extend beyond 90W tonight through Fri, then retract to E of 90W Sat afternoon through Sun. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions are expected. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador with seas generally in the 4-5 ft range. Seas will further subside to 3-4 ft during the upcoming weekend except in the Papagayo region, and offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1019 mb high pressure is centered across the northern forecast waters near 28N127W, and covers roughly the waters N of 16N between 110W and 140W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are dominating the area N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted S of the monsoon to the equator and W of 120W. A 1009 mb low pressure is forecast to persist along the monsoon trough over the next 48-72 hours. The low will move westward between 115W and 125W. An area of 6-8 ft seas will move in tandem with the low center. For the forecast, a frontal trough located just W of the forecast area will move across the NW waters tonight into Thu, preceded by fresh to locally strong SW winds ahead of it through tonight. A strong cold front will follow the trough, and will reach the NW waters late Thu into Thu night, then move slowly southward to along 27N by Fri morning. Strong to near gale force NE winds and large seas of 12-16 ft are expected in the wake of the front, forecast to stall and weaken considerably by Sat morning. The swell event will dominate the waters NW of a line from 30N126W to 25N140W by Fri morning, and Nw of a line from 30N118w to 20N140W by Fri night while gradually subsiding. $$ GR