000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong northerly winds will begin Wed night with gale force winds occurring from Thu morning through Fri morning. Seas will build to 8-11 ft during this time. Strong winds are expected to persist into the weekend as well as seas remaining 8-10 ft. Winds could pulse to near gale-force Fri night and Sat night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to a 1010 mb low near 08N85W to another 1010 mb low near 11N115W to 09N121W. The ITCZ extends from 09N121W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 17N between 97W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N and E of 93W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas are 5 to 9 ft in fresh NNW swell. Moderate to locally fresh N winds prevail in the Gulf of California with 4-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, mainly gentle NW winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across the remaining waters of Baja California, 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, and 3 to 6 ft between Tehuantepec and Acapulco offshore waters. For the forecast, NW to N swell will continue to spread southward across the Baja California offshore waters N of 27N through early Wed. A strong and significant gap wind event will develop in the Tehuantepec region starting Wed night, reaching gale force Thu morning through Fri morning. Winds will then remain strong and could pulse to near gale- force Fri night and Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light to gentle variable winds are prevailing elsewhere N of 06N and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the waters N of monsoon trough, along 06N-07N. Moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are to the S of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail off the Ecuador offshore waters to the Galapagos Islands with seas 4-6 ft. Scattered showers are active across the coastal waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, and extend southward to 02N. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist across most of the region into late week as a weak pressure pattern prevails. Fresh gap winds over the Papagayo region will persist into the upcoming weekend. Winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to locally strong each night through Fri, and extend beyond 92W Wed night through Fri, then retract to E of 90W Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The NE Pacific ridge extends SE into the area waters, between 115W and 140W, and has built slightly southward in the past 24 hours. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are dominating most area N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 23N. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh S/SW winds are noted S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough W of 110W. Gentle to moderate SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough E of 110W. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through early Wed. A strong cold front is expected to reach the far NW waters Thu morning, bringing strong SW winds ahead of it on Wed night. Behind the front, strong to near gale force NE winds are expected. NW swell behind this advancing front will raise seas 15 to 17 ft across the far NW waters near 30N140W by late Thu. The front is expected to reach from 30N129W to 25N140W by Fri morning before weakening considerably by Sat morning. $$ AReinhart