000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290923 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to 08N79W to 13N98W to 12N113W to 08.5N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 78W and 85W, from 11N to 16.5N between 94W and 105W, and within 150 nm either side of the trough between 105W and 127W, and within 20 nm either side of ITCZ W of 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough extends from SW to NE across the northern Gulf of California tonight, inducing fresh to strong SW to W winds between the trough and the Tiburon Basin. Seas have built 4 to 6 ft across this area. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft in fresh NNW swell. Elsewhere, mainly gentle NW winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the remaining waters of Baja California, 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, and 3 to 6 ft between Tehuantepec and Acapulco offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds across portions of the northern Gulf of California will quickly diminish and shift from the N late Tue morning, as low pressure N of the area moves E and exits the region. NW to N swell will spread southward across the Baja California offshore waters tonight through Wed. A strong and significant gap wind event will develop in the Tehuantepec region starting Wed night, reaching gale force Thu morning through Fri morning. Winds will then remain strong and pulse to near gale force Fri night and Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the waters N of monsoon trough, along 11N-12N. Mainly moderate SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are to the S of the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the coastal waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, and extend southward to 04.5N. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist across most of the region into late week as a weak pressure pattern prevails. Fresh gap winds have returned to the Papagayo region tonight and will persist into the upcoming weekend. Winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to locally strong each night through Fri, and extend beyond 92W Wed night through Fri, then retract to E of 90W Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The NE Pacific ridge extends SE into the area waters, between 115W and 140W, and has built slightly southward in the past 24 hours. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are dominating most area N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 25N. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through early Wed. A strong cold front is expected to reach the far NW waters Wed night, bringing strong to near gale force NE winds in its wake. NW swell behind this advancing front will raise seas 15 to 17 ft across the far NW waters by late Thu. The front is expected to reach from 30N125W to 24N140W by Fri morning before weakening considerably. $$ Stripling