000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290324
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to 09N81W to 13N95W to
12N111W to 09N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of  
05N between 79W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 09.5N to 15N between 101W and 117W, and 
from 06.5N to 09.5N between 117W and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough extends from SW to NE across the northern Gulf of
California this evening, inducing fresh to strong SW winds
between the trough and the Tiburon Basin. Seas have built 4 to 6
ft across this area. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail across 
the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas there are 5 to
8 ft in fresh NNW swell. Elsewhere, mainly gentle NW winds 
prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the remaining waters of Baja 
California, 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, and 3 to 6 
ft between Tehuantepec and Acapulco offshore waters. 

For the forecast, low pressure N of the region will maintain
moderate to fresh winds across Baja Norte waters and fresh to
strong SW winds inside the northern Gulf of California through
Tue morning. Winds in the northern Gulf will shift N and 
diminish Tue, as the low moves E and away from the area. NW to N
swell will spread southward across the Baja California offshore 
waters tonight through early Wed before diminishing. Strong gap 
winds will develop in the Tehuantepec region starting Wed night, 
reaching gale force Thu morning into Fri morning. 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate 
areas N of monsoon trough, along about 12N. Mainly moderate SW 
to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are to the S of the trough. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across the 
coastal waters of Panama and Costa Rica, and extend southward to
04.5N. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist
across the region into late week as a weak pressure pattern
prevails. Fresh gap winds will develop tonight and pulse to 
locally strong each night across the Papagayo region through 
Fri, and extend beyond 92W Wed night through Fri, then remain E 
of 90W through Sat. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The NE Pacific ridge extends SE into the area waters, and has
built slightly southward today. Moderate to locally fresh NE to 
E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are dominating most areas N of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 
ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected 
through Wed. A strong cold front is expected to reach the far NW
waters Wed night, bringing strong to near gale force NE winds in
its wake. NW swell behind this advancing front will raise seas 
15 to 17 ft across the far NW waters by late Thu.

$$
Stripling