000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282058 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Nov 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N82W to 11N99W to 08N122W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 86W and from 07N to 15N between 101W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough N of the area over California is causing increasing winds over the northern Gulf of California this afternoon, with fresh SW winds occurring. Moderate to fresh NW winds are also occurring offshore Baja California Norte. Elsewhere, mainly gentle NW winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft offshore Baja California, 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail across the Baja offshore waters and extend to offshore of Cabo Corrientes and waters north of 18N, as well as in the Gulf of California. These conditions are expected to persist into tonight. Fresh SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California this afternoon, to the S and E of low pressure passing N of the area. Winds will then increase to strong tonight into Tue morning before shifting N and diminishing Tue evening. Fresh NW winds and a new surge of NW swell will move into the Baja Norte waters this evening. Strong gap winds will develop in the Tehuantepec region starting Wed night, reaching gale force Thu morning into Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate areas N of monsoon trough, along about 12N. Mainly moderate SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are to the S of the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across the nearshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica, and are more numerous from the Gulf of Panama southward to 04N. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist across the region through mid-week as a weak pressure pattern prevails. Fresh gap winds will develop and pulse to locally strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight into Fri, and extend beyond 92W Wed night through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The NE Pacific ridge extends SE into the area waters, and is building some southward today. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are dominating most areas N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through Wed. A strong cold front is expected to reach the far NW waters Wed night, bringing strong NE winds in its wake. NW swell behind this advancing front will raise seas 15 to 17 ft across the far NW waters by late Thu. $$ KONARIK