000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N80W to 11N85W to 12N105W to 
08N122W. The ITCZ extends from 09N127W to beyond 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N 
E of 83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 07N to 14N between 98W and 139W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure NW of the area is producing broad ridging across 
the Mexican Pacific waters this morning. N of 18N, gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds prevail, with light to gentle variable 
winds to the S of 18N. Seas in the offshore waters are 5 to 7 ft 
N of 18N and 4 to 5 ft to the S. In the Gulf of California, seas
are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail 
across the Baja offshore waters and extend to offshore of Cabo 
Corrientes and waters north of 18N, as well as in the Gulf of 
California into tonight. Fresh SW winds will develop in the 
northern Gulf of California this afternoon, to the S and E of 
low pressure passing N of the area. Winds will then increase to 
strong tonight into Tue morning before shifting N and 
diminishing Tue evening. Fresh NW winds and a new surge of NW 
swell will move into the Baja Norte waters this evening. Strong 
gap winds will develop in the Tehuantepec region starting Wed 
night, reaching gale force Thu morning into Fri morning.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate
areas N of monsoon trough, along about 12N. Mainly moderate SW 
to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are to the S of the trough. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across the 
nearshore waters from Colombia to Nicaragua, and are more 
numerous from the Gulf of Panama southward to 04N.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist
across the region into mid-week as a weak pressure pattern
prevails. Fresh gap winds will develop and pulse to locally
strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight 
into Fri, and extend beyond 92W Wed night through Thu night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The low pressure W of the area has moved far enough N and W and 
its associated stationary front has weakened sufficiently to no
longer have impact on area waters. Moderate to fresh winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft area occurring in areas N of 25N and W of 
135W.

Farther to the southeast, the NE Pacific ridge extends SE into
the area waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas 7 to 9 
ft are present from 09N to 19N W of 120W, south of the ridge. 
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate NW swell will continue to propagate 
across much of the northern and western waters today, sending 
seas of 8 ft or greater as far far south as 03N. Marine 
conditions will begin to gradually improve tonight through Wed. 
Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected to reach the far 
NW waters Wed night. NW swell behind this advancing front will 
raise seas 15 to 17 ft across the far NW waters by late Thu.

$$
KONARIK