000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 09.5N79W TO 12.5N90W to 12.5N107W to 08N122W. The ITCZ extends from 09N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 14N between 93W and 115W, and from 07N to 12N W of 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure NW of the area is producing broad ridging across the Mexican Pacific waters tonight. N of 18N, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, with light to gentle variable winds to the S of 18N. Seas in the offshore waters are 5 to 7 ft N of 18N and 4 to 5 ft to the S. In the Gulf of California, seas are 2 to 4 ft in the southern and central Gulf, with 2 ft or less in the northern Gulf. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail across the Baja offshore waters and extend to offshore of Cabo Corrientes and waters north of 18N, as well as in the Gulf of California. These conditions are expected to persist into Mon night. Fresh SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Mon afternoon, to the S and E of low pressure passing N of the area. Winds will then increase to strong Mon night into Tue morning before shifting N and diminishing Tue evening. Fresh NW winds and a new surge of NW swell will move into the Baja Norte waters Mon evening. Looking ahead, strong gap winds will develop in the Tehuantepec region starting early Wed night, reaching gale force Thu morning through Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate areas N of monsoon trough, along about 12N. Mainly moderate SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are to the S of the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across the nearshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica, and are more numerous from the Gulf of Panama southward to 04N. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist across the region through early week as a weak pressure pattern prevails. Fresh gap winds will develop and pulse to locally strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo region Mon night through Thu night, and extend beyond 92W Wed night through Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low pressure system persists west of the area near 33N149.5W, with an associated stationary front oriented N to S, to the N of 25N along 142W. The low continues to slowly weaken and continues to drift NW, and conditions S of 30N and E of 140W continue to slowly improve tonight, where moderate SE winds prevail with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Farther to the southeast, the NE Pacific ridge extends SE into the area waters through 30N134W to near 23N123W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas 7 to 9 ft are present from 12N to 22N between 120W and 140W, south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the extratropical cyclone west of the area will continue to drift NW tonight, while weakening. Moderate NW swell will continue to propagate across much of the northern and western waters through tonight, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 125W and as far south as 03N. Marine conditions will begin to gradually improve Mon through Wed. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected to reach the far NW waters Wed night. NW swell behind this advancing front will raise seas 15 to 17 ft across the far NW waters by late Thu. $$ Stripling