558 AXPZ20 KNHC 280316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Nov 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74.5W to 09.5N81W TO 12.5N91W to 10.5N98W to 11N108W to 07N124W. The ITCZ extends from 09N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 10N E of 85W, from 08N to 14.5N between 93W and 115W, and from 07.5N to 09.5N W of 136.5W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 12.5N between 115W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure NW of the area is producing modest ridging across the Mexican Pacific waters tonight. N of 18N, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, with light to gentle variable winds to the S of 18N. Seas in the offshore waters are 5 to 7 ft N of 18N and 3 to 5 ft to the S. In the Gulf of California, seas are 2 to 4 ft in the southern and central Gulf, with 2 ft or less in the northern Gulf. For the forecast, Gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the Baja offshore waters to offshore of Cabo Corrientes are expected to persist into Mon night. Fresh SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Mon afternoon, to the S and E of low pressure passing N of the area. Winds in the northern Gulf will then increase to strong Mon night into Tue morning before shifting N and diminishing Tue evening. A new surge of NW swell will move into the Baja Norte waters Mon evening. Looking ahead, strong gap winds will develop in the Tehuantepec region starting Wed night, reaching gale force Thu morning through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate areas N of monsoon trough, along about 12N, with mainly moderate SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are to the S of the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across the nearshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica, and across the Gulf of Fonseca. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist across the region through early week as a weak pressure pattern prevails. Fresh gap winds will develop and pulse to locally strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo region Mon night through Thu night, and extend beyond 92W Wed night through Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1007 mb low pressure system persists west of the area near 32.5N149W, with an associated stationary front oriented N to S, to the N of 25N, along 141W. The low continues to slowly weaken and has drifted NW today, so conditions continue to slowly improve in the far NW waters, where seas of 7 to 8 ft prevail. Farther to the southeast, the NE Pacific ridge extends SE into the area waters through 30N134W to near 16N110W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas 7 to 9 ft are evident from 11N to 22N between 112W and 140W, south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the extratropical cyclone west of the area will continue to drift NW tonight, while weakening. Moderate NW swell will continue to propagate across much of the northern and western waters through tonight, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 120W and as far south as 03N. Marine conditions will begin to gradually improve Mon through Wed. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected to approach the far NW waters Wed night. NW swell behind this advancing front will raise seas 15 to 16 ft across the far NW waters by late Thu. $$ Stripling