000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272037
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Nov 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N82W to 11N117W to 10N132W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N 
between 93W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection has developed
from 06N to 11N between 82W and 87W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Modest ridging dominates the Mexican Pacific waters today. N of 
18N, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, with light to 
gentle variable winds to the S. Seas in the offshore waters are 5
to 7 ft N of 18N and 3 to 5 ft to the S. In the Gulf of
California, seas are 2 to 4 ft in the southern and central Gulf,
with 2 ft or less seas ongoing in the northern Gulf. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail 
across the Baja offshore waters north of 20N and in the Gulf of 
California, and will persist into Mon night. Fresh SW winds will 
develop in the northern Gulf of California Mon, to the S and E of
low pressure passing N of the area, then increase to strong Mon 
night through Tue morning. Looking ahead, strong gap winds are 
expected in the Tehuantepec region starting Wed night, reaching 
gale force Thu morning into Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate
areas N of monsoon trough, along about 11N, with mainly moderate
SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are to the S of the trough.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present the nearshore 
waters from Colombia to Costa Rica.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist
across the region through early week as a weak pressure pattern 
prevails. Fresh gap winds will develop and pulse to locally 
strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo region Mon night 
through Thu night, and extend beyond 92W Wed night through Thu 
night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1004 mb low pressure system is centered west of the area near 
31N148W, with an associated stationary front oriented N to S N of
25N just W of the area. The low has weakened slightly and drifted
NW today, so conditions have improved in our nearby waters. Seas
of 7 to 9 ft persist.

Farther to the southeast, moderate to fresh trade winds and seas
7 to 10 ft are evident from 10N to 20N between 120W and 140W, 
south of a broad area of high pressure dominating the regional 
waters. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the extratropical cyclone west of the area 
will continue to drift NW tonight, while weakening. Large NW 
swell will continue to propagate across much of the northern and 
western waters through tonight, sending seas of 8 ft or greater 
as far east as 120W and as far south as 03N. Marine conditions 
will begin to gradually improve Mon through Wed. Looking ahead, a
strong cold front is expected to approach the far NW waters Wed 
night. NW swell behind this advancing front will raise seas to 16
ft across the far NW waters by late Thu.

$$
KONARIK