000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271454
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Nov 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N79W to 11N106W to 11N127W to 
10N135W. The ITCZ extends from 10N135W to 09N140W. 


Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
08N to 14N between 88W and 123W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 07.5N to 09.5N W of 137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Modest ridging dominates the Mexican Pacific waters today. N of 
18N, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, with light to 
gentle variable winds to the S. Seas in the offshore waters are 5
to 7 ft N of 18N and 3 to 5 ft to the S. In the Gulf of
California, seas are 2 to 4 ft in the southern and central Gulf,
with 2 ft or less seas ongoing in the northern Gulf. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail 
across the Baja offshore waters north of 22N and in the Gulf of 
California, and will persist through Mon. Fresh SW winds will 
develop in the northern Gulf of California Mon, to the S and E of
low pressure passing N of the area, then increase to strong Mon 
night through Tue morning. Looking ahead, strong gap winds are 
likely in the Tehuantepec region starting Wed night, reaching 
gale force Thu morning through Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate
areas N of monsoon trough, along about 11N, with mainly moderate
SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are to the S of the trough.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present the nearshore 
waters from Colombia to northern Costa Rica.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist
across the region through early next week as a weak pressure
pattern prevails. Fresh gap winds will develop and pulse to
locally strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo region Mon
night into Thu, and extend beyond 92W Wed night through Thu
night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1004 mb low pressure system is centered west of the area near 
31N148W. A stationary front to the east of the low extends along
the far NW border along 140W N of 25N. The associated pressure 
gradient is producing fresh SE winds across the NW corner of the 
forecast region, mainly N of 25N and W of 138W. Seas are 8 to 
10ft in this area in a combination of SE wind waves and NW swell.
Farther to the southeast, moderate to fresh trade winds and seas
7 to 10 ft are evident from 12N to 20N between 120W and 140W, 
south of a broad area of high pressure dominating the regional 
waters. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are 
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the extratropical cyclone west of the area 
will drift NW today while weakening. To the east of this system,
fresh SE to S winds will persist across the waters north of 22N 
and west of 137W through this morning, then shift W and out of 
the area. Large NW swell will continue to propagate across much 
of the northern and western waters through tonight, sending seas
of 8 ft or greater as far east as 120W and as far south as 03N. 
Marine conditions will begin to gradually improve Mon through Wed.
Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected to approach the 
far NW waters Wed night. NW swell behind this advancing front 
will raise seas to 16 ft across the far NW waters by late Thu.

$$
KONARIK