653 AXPZ20 KNHC 270941 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Nov 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to 12N101W to 10N112W to 11.5N127W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 88W and 123W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 09.5N W of 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds continue to gradually diminish across the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California tonight. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail across the Baja offshore waters and extend southward to Cabo Corrientes, and are also occurring inside the Gulf of California, except for light and variable winds far north portions. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell across the offshore waters and 3 to 5 ft across the southern Gulf of California. To the south, mainly gentle NW to W winds prevail. Seas are generally 4 to 5 ft across the Mexican offshore waters southeast of Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, gentle to moderate northerly winds will persist across the Baja offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes and in the Gulf of California through Mon. Fresh SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Mon, to the S and E of low pressure passing N of the area, then increase to strong Mon night through Tue morning. Looking ahead, strong gap winds are likely in the Tehuantepec region starting Wed night, reaching gale force Thu morning through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate areas N of monsoon trough, along about 11N, with mainly moderate SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are to the S of the trough. Isolated showers and thunderstorms dot the nearshore waters from Panama to central Costa Rica. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist across the region through early next week as a weak pressure pattern prevails. Fresh gap winds will develop and pulse to locally strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo region Mon night into Thu, and extend beyond 92W Wed night through Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1004 mb low pressure system is centered west of the area near 31N148W. A stationary front to the east of the low extends across the far NW waters from 27.5N140W to 30N137.5W. Scattered moderate convection has been occurring over these waters east of the front but has recently lifted to the north of 30N. The associated pressure gradient is producing fresh SE winds across the NW corner of the forecast region, mainly N of 22N and W of 137W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in this area in a combination of SE wind waves and NW swell. Farther to the southeast, moderate to fresh trade winds and seas 7 to 10 ft are evident from 13N to 20N between 120W and 140W, south of a broad area of high pressure dominating the regional waters. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the extratropical cyclone west of the area will drift northward tonight, then move NW on Sun while weakening. To the east of this system, fresh SE to S winds will persist across the waters north of 22N and west of 137W through early Sun morning, then shift W and out of the area. Large NW swell will continue to propagate across much of the northern and western waters through Sun night, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 120W and as far south as 04N. Marine conditions will begin to gradually improve Mon through mid week. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected to approach the far NW waters early Thu morning. NW swell behind this advancing front will raise seas to 15 ft across the far NW waters by late Thu. $$ Stripling