195 
AXPZ20 KNHC 260825
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0750 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 09.5N99W to 10.5N126W 
to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07N to 14N between 82W and 114W, from 07.5N to 15N 
between 114W and 130W, and from 06N to 10N W of 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW to N winds are blowing across most of the Gulf
of California tonight, and extend southward beyond Baja Sur to
21N. These winds are also bleeding through the gaps in the 
mountains of Baja California and spilling fresh to strong NE 
winds into the Pacific offshore waters from Bahia Sebastian 
Vizcaino to Cabo San Lucas, and moderate to fresh N winds from 
south of Baja Sur to Cabo Corrientes. This scenario is generating
seas of 6 to 7 ft in NW swell across most of the Baja waters,
except to 8 ft across the outer waters north of 24N. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. 
Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft across this area to the mouth of the
Gulf, where peak seas are 8 ft. These enhanced winds are due to 
strong high pressure centered north of the area over the Great 
Basin. Farther south, light to gentle NW to N winds and moderate 
seas are evident across the offshore waters of southern Mexico to
Puerto Angel.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure over the Great Basin 
of United States will shift eastward tonight through Sat and
allow the local pressure gradient to relax from north to south
late tonight. Winds will gradually diminish on both sides of the
Baja Peninsula late tonight through Sat night. High pressure to 
the NW will then prevail across the region through Mon. Fresh to 
locally strong SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of 
California Mon night into Tue ahead of an approaching cold front.
Building NW swell is expected to arrive offshore of Baja 
California Norte Mon night through Tue. Looking ahead, a
significant gap wind event is possible across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E to ESE winds prevail across the Papagayo region
tonight with seas of 4-5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 
5-6 ft seas in mainly SW swell prevail elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough along 09.5N. Mainly moderate S to SW winds are 
occurring south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft in SW 
swell south of the monsoon trough, except 2-3 ft in the lee of 
the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate winds and seas will persist across 
the region into early next week. Fresh gap winds will develop and 
pulse to strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo region 
Mon night through Wed night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 998 mb low pressure system is centered west of the area near 
29N147W. A stationary front to the east of the low extends N to 
S along 140W between 25N and 30N. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along and east of the front to 138W. The associated 
pressure gradient is producing fresh to strong southerly winds 
across the NW corner of the forecast region, mainly N of 24N and
W of 138W. Seas are 10 to 13 ft in this area in a combination of
SE wind waves and NW swell. Farther to the southeast, fresh 
trade winds and seas 7 to 9 ft are evident from 14N to 21N 
between 120W and 126W, south of a broad area of high pressure 
dominating the waters north of 20N. Moderate winds and seas are 
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the extratropical cyclone west of the area 
will drift northward through Sat night, then move NW on Sun 
while weakening. To the east of this system, fresh to strong SE 
to S winds will persist across the waters north of 25N and west 
of 138W through early Sun morning. Large NW swell will continue 
to propagate across much of the northern and western waters 
through Sun night, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as
124W and as far south as 04N. Marine conditions will begin to 
gradually improve Mon through mid week. Looking ahead, a strong
cold front is expected to approach the far NW waters Thu morning.

$$
Stripling