000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260335
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Nov 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to 09N96W to 11N128W to
07.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07.5N to 12N between 82W and 88W, from 07N to 13N
between 93W and 101W, from 07N to 14.5N between 105W and 129W, and
from 06N to 10N W of 131W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW to N winds are blowing across most of the Gulf
of California this evening, and extend southward to just beyond
Baja Sur. These winds are also bleeding through the gaps in the
mountains of Baja California and spilling strong NNE winds into 
the Pacific offshore waters from Bahia Sebastian Vizcaino to 
Cabo San Lucas, and moderate to fresh N winds from south of Baja 
Sur to Cabo Corrientes. This scenario is generating seas of 6 to 
8 ft in NW swell across most of the Baja waters. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of California, primarily 
south of the Tiburon Basin. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft across 
this area to the mouth of the Gulf, with peak seas to 8 ft. These
enhanced winds are due to strong high pressure centered north of
the area over the Great Basin. Farther south, light to gentle NW
to N winds and moderate seas are evident across the offshore 
waters of southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, the strong high pressure over the Great Basin 
of United States will shift eastward tonight through Sat and
allow the local pressure gradient to relax from north to south
late tonight. Winds will diminish quickly on both sides of the 
Baja Peninsula late tonight through Sat. High pressure to the NW
will then prevail across the region through Mon. Fresh to 
locally strong SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of 
California Mon night into Tue ahead of an approaching cold front.
Building NW swell is expected to arrive offshore of Baja 
California Norte Mon night through Tue.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE to E winds prevail across the Papagayo region this
evening with seas of 4-5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 
5-6 ft seas in mainly SW swell prevail elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough along 09N. Mainly moderate S to SW winds are 
occurring south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft in SW 
swell south of the monsoon trough, except 2-3 ft in the lee of 
the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate winds and seas will persist across 
the region into early next week. Fresh gap winds will develop and 
pulse to strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo region 
Mon night through Wed night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1000 mb low pressure system is centered west of the area near 
28N148W. A stationary front to the east of the low extends N to S
along 140W between 25N and 30N. The associated pressure gradient
is producing fresh to strong southerly winds across the NW 
corner of the forecast region, mainly N of 26N and W of 138W. 
Seas are 10 to 14 ft in this area in a combination of SE wind 
waves and NW swell. Farther to the southeast, fresh trade winds 
and seas 7 to 9 ft are evident from 14N to 21N between 120W and 
126W, south of a broad area of high pressure dominating the 
waters north of 20N. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the extratropical cyclone west of the area 
will move little through Sat, then move NW on Sun while weakening.
To the east of this system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will 
persist across the waters north of 25N and west of 138W through 
early Sun morning. Large NW swell will continue to propagate 
across much of the northern and western waters through Sun 
night, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 120W and 
as far south as 05N. Seas will peak around 15 ft along 140W N of
20N through tonight. Marine conditions will begin to gradually 
improve Mon through mid week.

$$
Stripling