000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251557
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Nov 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Costa Rica/Panama border  
to 1011 mb low pressure near 08N90W, then to 1011 mb low 
pressure near 11N121W to another 1011 mb low pressure near
09N128W to beyond 07N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated
strong convection can be found from 06N to 12N between 120W and 
from 06N to 10N W of 131W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 15N between 105W and 120W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW to N winds are blowing across most of the Gulf
of California. The enhanced winds have been due to strong high 
pressure centered north of the area over the Great Basin. This is
shifting eastward, allowing the gradient to gradually relax from
north the south. Fresh to strong NE winds continue through the 
various gaps along the Baja California peninsula. The long fetch 
of NW winds is resulting in wave heights to 8 ft over the central
and southern Gulf of California. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft off
Baja California. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 
moderate wave height seas are evident across the offshore waters 
southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the Great Basin of 
United States will continue to induce fresh to strong NW to N 
winds over most of the Gulf of California through early Sat. 
These winds could spread through the gaps in the mountains over 
Baja California into the waters west of Baja California, 
particularly in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia through tonight. 
Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SW winds may develop in 
the northern Gulf of California early next week due to an 
approaching cold front, while building NW swell arrives offshore 
Baja California Norte. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds prevail across the Papagayo region with seas of 
5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 5-6 ft seas in mainly 
S-SW swell prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle
to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon 
trough, including the Central and South America offshore waters. 
Seas are 5-6 ft in S-SW swell south of the monsoon trough, except
3-5 ft in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate winds and seas will persist across 
the region into early next week. Fresh gap winds may pulse across
the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua by Mon night 
through Tue night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

An extratropical storm center of 996 mb is centered west of the 
area near 29N148W. This system is producing fresh to strong
southerly winds across the NW corner of the forecast region,
mainly N of 25N and W of 138W. Combined seas are 10 to 13 ft in 
this area in a combination of SE wind waves and NW swell. Farther
to the southeast, fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft are evident
from 14N to 18N between 118W and 124W, south of a broad area of 
high pressure dominating the waters north of 20N. An area of 
fresh SW winds and seas to 8 ft are noted from 05N to the monsoon
trough, between 120W and 130W. Moderate winds and seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the strengthening low pressure system west of 
the area will move little through Sun. To the east of this low 
pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will likely affect
the waters north of 20N and west of 135W through early Sun 
morning. Large NW swell will continue to propagate across much of
the area through Sun night, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as 
far east as 125W and as far south as the Equator. Seas will peak 
around 12 ft along 140W from 18N to 30N over the next 24 hours. 
Conditions will begin to gradually improve Mon through mid week.

$$
GR