000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250833 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N120W, then to another 1011 mb low pressure near 09N127W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 120 nm of the low pressure areas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent ship observations indicate fresh to strong NW to N winds persist off Baja California Sur and the central and southern Gulf of California. Land-based observations over the northern Gulf of California hint winds are diminishing slightly, from the strong wind that were active there yesterday along with near- gale force gusts. The enhanced winds have been due to strong high pressure centered north of the area over the Great Basin. This is shifting eastward, allowing the gradient to gradually relax from north the south. Strong winds continue through the various gaps along the Baja California peninsula. The long fetch of NW winds is resulting in wave heights to 8 ft over the central and southern Gulf of California. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja California. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and moderate wave height seas are evident across the offshore waters southern Mexico. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the Great Basin of United States will continue to induce fresh to strong NW to N winds over most of the Gulf of California through early Sat. These winds could spread through the gaps in the mountains over Baja California into the waters west of Baja California, particularly in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia overnight. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California early next week due to an approaching cold front, while building NW swell arrives offshore Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds prevail across the Papagayo region with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 5-6 ft seas in mainly S-SW prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, including the Central and South America offshore waters. Seas are 5-6 ft in S-SW swell south of the monsoon trough, except 3-5 ft in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region into early next week. Fresh gap winds may pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua by Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A deep 996 mb low pressure area is centered west of the area near 30N148W. A recent pair of ship observations southeast of the low confirm fresh SE winds near 25N138W, which is part of a broader area of SE winds north of 25N and west of 135W. Combined seas are 8 to 12 ft in this area in a combination of SE wind waves and NW swell. Farther to the southeast, fresh trade winds and seas to 8 ft are evident from 15N to 25N between 115W and 125W, south of a broad area of high pressure dominating the waters north of 20N. An area of fresh SW winds and seas to 8 ft are noted from 05N to the monsoon trough, between 120W and 130W. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the strengthening low pressure system west of the area will move little through Sun. To the east of this low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will likely affect the waters north of 20N and west of 135W through early Sun morning. Large NW swell will continue to propagate across much of the area through Sun night, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 125W and as far south as the Equator. Seas will peak around 12 ft along 140W from 18N to 30N over the next 24 hours. Conditions will begin to gradually improve Mon through mid week. $$ Christensen