000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250238 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Nov 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N85W to 1007 mb low pressure near 11N115W, then to 1006 mb low pressure near 08N127W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 120 nm of the low pressure areas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tight pressure gradient from high pressure over the Great Basin of the United States is supporting fresh to strong winds with seas to 8 ft in the northern Gulf of California. Fresh winds are noted across the rest of the Gulf with seas to 4-5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Baja California offshore waters as well as the offshore waters of southern Mexico. Seas are 4-6 ft within mostly NW swell, with mixed swell near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds prevail across the southern Mexico offshore waters with 5-6 ft seas. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the Great Basin of United States will continue to induce fresh to strong NW to N winds over most of the Gulf of California through early Sat. These winds could spread through the gaps in the mountains over Baja California into the waters west of Baja California, particularly in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia overnight. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California early next week due to an approaching cold front, while building NW swell arrives offshore Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds prevail across the Papagayo region with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 5-6 ft seas in mainly S-SW prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, including the Central and South America offshore waters. Seas are 5-6 ft in S-SW swell south of the monsoon trough, except 4-6 ft within 60 nm offshore Colombia and 3-5 ft in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region into early next week. Fresh gap winds may pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua by Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered north of the area dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. A surface trough is analyzed just west of 140W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains an area of moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 30N west of 130W. Seas are 7-9 ft within these winds. Meanwhile, a 1002 mb low pressure system is centered west of the area near 31N146W, continues to deepen. This is bringing fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 10 ft near 30N140W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and 5-8 ft seas prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-8 ft seas prevail south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the strengthening low pressure system west of the area will move little through the weekend. To the east of this low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will likely affect the waters north of 20N and west of 135W through early Sun morning. Large NW swell will continue to propagate across much of the area through Sun night, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 125W and as far south as the Equator. Seas will peak around 12 ft along 140W from 18N to 30N over the next 24 hours. Conditions will begin to gradually improve late this weekend into early next week. $$ Christensen