889 
AXPZ20 KNHC 242147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to a 1011 mb low pres near 08N88W to a 1010 mb low pres
near 10N117W to 07N132W. The ITCZ extends from 07N132W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N
between 79W and 93W and from 05N to 17N between 102W and 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tight pressure gradient from high pressure over the Great Basin
of the United States is giving way to fresh to strong winds with
seas to 8 ft in the northern Gulf of California. Fresh winds are
noted across the rest of the Gulf with seas to 4-5 ft. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted across the Baja California offshore 
waters as well as the SW Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft 
within mostly NW swell, with mixed swell near Cabo Corrientes. 
Light to gentle winds prevail across the southern Mexico offshore
waters with 5-6 ft seas. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the Great Basin of 
United States will continue to induce fresh to strong NW to N 
winds over most of the Gulf of California through early Sat. 
These winds could spread through the gaps in the mountains over 
Baja California into the waters west of Baja California, 
particularly in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia. Looking ahead, 
fresh to strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of 
California early next week due to an approaching cold front, 
while building NW swell arrives offshore Baja California Norte.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds prevail across the Papagayo region with seas of 
5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 5-6 ft seas in mainly 
S-SW prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough,
including the Central and South America offshore waters. Seas 
are 5-6 ft in S-SW swell south of the monsoon trough, except 4-6
ft within 60 nm offshore Colombia and 3-5 ft in the lee of the 
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist 
across the Papagayo region through Fri, then again late Mon night.
Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the 
forecast period, with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft across the entire
offshore waters this weekend into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered north of the area dominates the waters 
north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. A surface trough is
analyzed just west of 140W. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains an area of
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 30N west of 
130W. Seas are 7-9 ft within these winds. Meanwhile, a 1010 mb 
low pres system west of the area, located near 30N146W, is 
beginning to deepen. This is bringing fresh to locally strong 
winds and seas to 10 ft near 30N140W. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh winds and 5-8 ft seas prevail elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-8 ft seas prevail 
south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the strengthening low pressure system west of
the area is forecast to stall through the weekend. To the east 
of this low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will 
likely affect the far NW waters through early Sun morning. Large 
NW swell will continue to propagate across much of the area 
through Sun night, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as
125W and as far south as the Equator. Seas will peak around 12 
ft along 140W from 18N to 30N on Fri. Conditions will begin to 
gradually improve late this weekend into early next week.

$$
AReinhart