000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241553
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Nov 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to a 1010 mb low pres near 08N88W to a 1010 mb low pres
near 10N117W to 08N133W. The ITCZ extends from 08N133W to
09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 07N to 12N between 116W and 126W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 87W and 116W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tight pressure gradient from high pressure over the Great Basin
of the United States is giving way to fresh to strong winds in 
the northern Gulf of California. Seas in the northern Gulf are up
to 6 ft with 3-5 ft across the rest of the basin. Gentle to 
moderate winds are noted across the Baja California offshore 
waters as well as the SW Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft 
within mostly NW swell, with mixed swell near Cabo Corrientes. 
Light to gentle winds prevail across the southern Mexico offshore
waters with 5-6 ft seas. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the Great Basin of 
United States will induce an extended period of fresh to strong 
NW to N winds over most of the Gulf of California through early 
Sat. These winds could spread through the gaps in the mountains 
over Baja California into the waters west of Baja California, 
particularly in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia. Looking ahead, 
fresh to strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of 
California early next week due to an approaching cold front, 
while building NW swell arrives offshore Baja California Norte.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds continue across the 
Papagayo region with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable
winds and 5-6 ft seas in mainly S-SW prevail elsewhere north of 
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are 
occurring south of the monsoon trough, including the Central and 
South America offshore waters. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in 
S-SW swell south of the monsoon trough, except 4-6 ft within 60 
nm offshore Colombia and 3-5 ft in the lee of the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist 
across the Papagayo region through Fri, then again late Mon night.
Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the 
forecast period, with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft across the entire
offshore waters this weekend into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered north of the area dominates the waters 
north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. A surface trough is
analyzed just west of 140W. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains an area of
fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 26N west of 130W. Seas are 7-9 
ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh winds and 5-7 ft seas 
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate
winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong trade winds will 
persist over the west-central waters through this morning. A 
strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the 
west of the area near 30N150W later this week. To the east of 
this low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will 
likely affect the far NW waters later today into the weekend. 
Large NW swell will propagate across much of the area later this
morning through Sat, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east
as 125W and as far south as the Equator. Seas will peak around 
12 ft along 140W from 18N to 30N on Fri night. Conditions will 
begin to gradually improve late this weekend into early next 
week.

$$
AReinhart