000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240712 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Nov 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica to 09N84W to 1009 mb low pressure near 08N88W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09N116W to 08N126W to 12N137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 101W and 107W, from 12N to 17N between 112W and 118W, and from 07N to 10N between 118W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A locally tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting fresh N-NE winds and 6-7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell are noted elsewhere offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas, as well as offshore Michoacan and Guerrero. Moderate NW-N winds prevail across the remainder of the waters, locally fresh near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 4-6 ft, except 2-4 ft in the Gulf of California, highest near the entrance. For the forecast, fresh N-NE winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish by the afternoon. Strong high pressure over the Great Basin of United States will induce an extended period of fresh to strong NW to N winds over most of the Gulf of California from later this morning through early Sat. These winds could spread through the gaps in the mountains over Baja California into the waters west of Baja California, particularly in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California early next week due to an approaching cold front, while building NW swell arrives offshore Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo region with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 5-7 ft seas in mainly S-SW prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, including the Central and South America offshore waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in S-SW swell south of the monsoon trough, except 4-6 ft within 60 nm offshore Colombia and 3-5 ft in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through Fri, then again late Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period, with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft across the entire offshore waters this weekend into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered north of the area dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. A surface trough is analyzed just west of 140W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains an area of fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 10N to 22N west of 130W. Seas are 7-9 ft within these winds. Moderate to locally fresh winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong trade winds will persist over the west-central waters through this morning. A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the west of the area near 30N150W later this week. To the east of this low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will likely affect the far NW waters later today into the weekend. Large NW swell will propagate across much of the area later this morning through Sat, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 125W and as far south as the Equator. Seas will peak around 12 ft along 140W from 18N to 30N. Conditions will begin to gradually improve late this weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky