000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240242 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Nov 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica to 09N94W to 09N102W to 10N110W to 1008 mb low pressure near 09N117W to 08N125W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N138W. Scattered moderate from 06N to 08.5N between 83W and 90W, from 07N to 10N between 99W and 106W, from 10N to 15N between 99W and 117W, and from 06N to 10N between 116W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico continues to support a gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Currently, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 7 ft are noted north of 14N between 94.5W and 95.5W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell are noted elsewhere offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas, as well as offshore Michoacan and Guerrero. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds prevail across the remainder of the waters offshore Cabo Corrientes northward, including in the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California. Seas are 4-6 ft from offshore Cabo Corrientes northward, except 2-4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through tonight. Strong high pressure over the Great Basin of United States will induce an extended period of fresh to strong NW to N winds over most of the Gulf of California from Thu through Fri night. These winds could spread through the gaps in the mountains over Baja California into the waters west of Baja California, particularly in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California early next week due to an approaching cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo region with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and 5-7 ft seas in S-SW prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, including the Central and South America offshore waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in S-SW swell south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through Fri, then again early next week. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to subside across the waters well offshore Guatemala tonight into Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period, with seas subsiding some Fri through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb centered north of the area near 36N131W dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. A surface trough is analyzed just west of 140W with scattered moderate convection from 13N to 16N west of 137W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains an area of fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 10N to 22N W of 129W. Seas are 7-10 ft within these winds. Mainly moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere, locally 8 ft from 05N to 12N between 92W and 103W enhanced somewhat by a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong trade winds will persist over the west-central waters through Thu morning. A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the west of the area near 30N150W late this week. To the east of this low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will likely affect the far NW waters late Thu into the weekend. Large NW swell will propagate across much of the area Thu through Sat, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 125W and as far south as the Equator. Seas could exceed 12 ft north of 25N and west of 138W. Conditions will begin to gradually improve late this weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky