000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232123 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Nov 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across western Panama and southern Costa Rica to 08N100W to a 1012 mb low pressure situated near 10N114W to another 1012 mb low pressure located near 10N131W to 12N135W. A surface trough is analyzed near 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 07N to 09N between 117W and 121W, and from 10N to 13N between 100W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico continues to support a gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Currently, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 8 ft are noted N of 14N between 94.5W and 95.5W. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, and also in the Gulf of California. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, outside the Tehuantepec region, gentle to moderate NW winds are observed with seas of 4 to 5 ft with SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through tonight while seas will continue to subside. Strong high pressure over the Great Basin of United States will induce an extended period of fresh to strong NW to N winds over most of the Gulf of California from Thu through Fri night. These winds could spread through the gaps in the mountains over Baja California into the waters W of Baja California, particularly in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo region with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, including the Central and South America offshore waters. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in SW swell S of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough in SW swell as well. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through Thu, then winds are expected to turn mainly light and variable through the remainder of the forecast period. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to subside across the waters well offshore Guatemala tonight into Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period, with seas subsiding some Fri through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb centered N of the area near 34N131W dominates roughly the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains an area of fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 15N to 22N W of 130W. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds based on an altimeter pass. For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong trade winds will persist over the west-central waters through Thu morning. A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the west of the area near 30N150W late this week. To the east of this low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will likely affect the far NW waters late Thu into the weekend. Large NW swell will propagate across much of the area late Thu through Sat, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 115W and as far south as the equator. Seas could exceed 12 ft N of 25N and west of 138W. Conditions will begin to gradually improve late this weekend. $$ GR