000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231538
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica to 08N100W to a 
1011 mb low pressure situated near 09N113W to another 1011 mb 
low pressure located near 10N131W to 11N136W. The ITCZ extends 
from 11N136W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 110W and 123W. 
Similar convection is near 14N110W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains
in Mexico continues to support a gap wind event across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Latest scatterometer data showed northerly winds
of 20 to 30 kt extending to 13N while seas are in the 8 to 9 ft 
range across the region. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail 
across the Baja California offshore waters, and also in the Gulf
of California. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf
of California. Elsewhere, outside the Tehuantepec region, gentle
to moderate NW winds prevail with seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will persist 
in the Tehuantepec region through tonight while seas will 
gradually subside. Strong high pressure over the Great Basin 
will induce an extended period of fresh to strong NW to N winds 
over the entire Gulf of California from Thu through Fri night. 
These winds could spread through the gaps in the mountains over 
Baja California into the waters W of Baja California, 
particularly near Punta Eugenia.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds continue across the 
Papagayo region with seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell. Gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough,
including the Central and South America offshore waters. Seas 
are in the 5 to 7 ft range in SW swell S of the monsoon trough. 
Light to gentle winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere N of the 
monsoon trough in SW swell as well.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist 
across the Papagayo region through Thu, then winds are expected
to increase again to 20 kt by Sun night as high pressure builds 
N of the area. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event 
will continue to subside across the waters well offshore Guatemala
this morning. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere 
through the forecast period, with seas subsiding some Fri through
Sat.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1028 mb centered N of the area near 35N131W 
dominates roughly the waters N of 15N and W of 115W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics sustains an area of fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
from 13N to 18N W of 130W. Seas are 8-9 ft within these winds.

For the forecast, an area of fresh to strong trade winds will
persist over the west-central waters through Thu morning. A 
strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the 
west of the area near 30N150W late this week. To the east of this
low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will likely 
affect the far NW waters late Thu into the weekend. Large NW 
swell will propagate across much of the area Thu through Sat, 
sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 115W and as far 
south as the equator. Seas could exceed 12 ft N of 25N and west 
of 138W. Conditions will begin to gradually improve late this 
weekend.

$$
GR