000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230930
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica to 07N100W to a 
1012 mb low pressure situated near 07N113W to a 1013 mb low 
pressure near 11N129W to 12N137W. The ITCZ extends from 12N137W 
to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 05N E
of 87W, and from 05N to 12N between 89W and 101W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 05N to 15N between 107W and 123W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains
in Mexico continues to support a gap wind event across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Recent scatterometer data showed northerly winds
of 20 to 30 kt extending to 13N while seas remain in the 8 to 10
ft range across the region. The scatterometer also captured light
to gentle NW winds along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 
ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the Baja 
California offshore waters with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range.
Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the 
SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, near gale force N to NE winds in the Tehuantepec
region will diminish to fresh to strong speeds this morning and 
to moderate speeds Thu morning. Seas will be generally in the 5 
to 9 ft range within this period. The next gap winds event in the
Tehuantepec area is forecast to begin Fri night and will 
continue through Tue as a new cold front moves across the Gulf of
Mexico. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale force Fri night
and prevail through Sat night. Strong high pressure over the 
Great Basin will induce an extended period of fresh to strong NW 
to N winds over the entire Gulf of California from Thu through 
Fri night. These winds could spread through the gaps in the 
mountains over Baja California into the waters W of Baja 
California, particularly near Punta Eugenia.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds continue across the 
Papagayo region with seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, including the
Central and South America offshore waters. Seas are in the 5 to 7
ft range in SW swell S of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle 
winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough
in SW swell as well.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist 
across the Papagayo region through Thu, then winds are expected
to increase again to 20 kt by Sun night as high pressure builds 
N of the area. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event 
will continue to subside across the waters well offshore Guatemala
this morning. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere 
through the forecast period, with seas subsiding some Fri through
Sat.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1028 mb centered N of the area dominates 
roughly the waters N of 15N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics 
sustains an area of fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 
13N to 25N W of 130W. Seas are 7-8 ft within these winds. 

For the forecast, an area of fresh to strong trade winds will
persist over the west-central waters through this evening. A 
strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the 
west of the area near 30N150W late this week. To the east of this
low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will likely 
affect the far NW waters Thu night into the weekend. Large NW 
swell will propagate across much of the area Thu through Sat, 
sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 115W and as far 
south as the equator. Seas could exceed 12 ft west of 135W and 
north of 15N. Conditions will begin to gradually improve late 
this weekend.

$$
Ramos