000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230357 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across the Gulf of Panama to 08N83W to 07N100W to a 1009 mb low pressure situated near 07N113W to a second 1010 mb low pressure near 12N128W to 12N132W. The ITCZ extends from 12N132W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 92W and 102W. Similar convection is from 13N to 20N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico continues to support a gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Presently, northerly winds of 20 to 30 kt and seas in the 8 to 10 ft range are across the region. Gentle to moderate NW winds are along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range while light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, near gale force N to NE winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish to fresh to strong speeds Wed morning and to moderate speeds Thu morning. Seas will be generally in the 5 to 9 ft range within this period. The next gap winds event in the Tehuantepec area is forecast to begin Fri night and will continue through Tue as a new cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale force Fri night and prevail through Sat night. Strong high pressure over the Great Basin will induce an extended period of fresh to strong NW to N winds over the entire Gulf of California from Thu through Fri night. These winds could spread through the gaps in the mountains over Baja California into the waters W of Baja California, particularly near Punta Eugenia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo region with seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, including the Central and South America offshore waters. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in SW swell S of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough in SW swell as well. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through Thu, then winds are expected to increase again to 20 kt by Sun night as high pressure builds N of the area. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to subside across the waters well offshore Guatemala tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period, with seas subsiding some Fri through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb centered N of the area dominates roughly the waters N of 18N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds from 13N to 20N W of 130W. Seas are 7-8 ft within these winds. For the forecast, an area of fresh to strong trade winds will persist over the west-central waters through Wed evening. A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the west of the area near 30N150W late this week. To the east of this low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will likely affect the far NW waters Thu night into the weekend. Large NW swell will propagate across much of the area Thu through Sat, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 115W and as far south as the equator. Seas could exceed 12 ft west of 135W and north of 15N. Conditions will begin to gradually improve late this weekend. $$ Ramos