000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222106 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Nov 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across the Gulf of Panama to a 1010 mb low pressure located near 09N86W to another 1012 mb low pressure situated near 08N109W to a third 1012 mb low pressure near 11N118W to 12N130W. A surface trough is analyzed from 14N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N E of 80W, from 07N to 09N between 84W and 86W, and from 06N to 11N between 90W and 102W. Similar convection is near 14N99W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico continues to support a gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Currently, northerly winds of 20 to 30 kt and seas in the 9 to 11 ft range are noted across the region. Satellite imagery shows some shower activity downstream of the Gulf. Moderate northerly winds are also noted in the northern Gulf of California with light winds farther south in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 4 ft in the northern Gulf of California, and 4 to 6 elsewhere outside the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through Wed night, with seas generally in the 7 to 10 ft range. The next gap winds event in the Tehuantepec area is forecast to begin Fri night and will continue through Sun night as a new cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. For now, winds are expected to reach minimal gale force on Sat. Strong high pressure over the Great Basin will induce an extended period of fresh to strong NW to N winds over the entire Gulf of California from Thu through Fri night. These winds could spread through the gaps in the mountains over Baja California into the waters W of Baja California, particularly near Punta Eugenia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo region with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Earlier altimeter data showed seas up to 7 ft in these waters. Gentle winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. The exception is well offshore of western Guatemala, where seas of 7-8 ft are likely occurring due to swell from a Gulf of Tehuantepec wind event. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through Thu, then winds are expected to increase again to 20 kt by Sun night as high pressure builds N of the area. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to subside across the waters well offshore Guatemala tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period, with seas subsiding some Fri through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1024 mb located near 33N136W dominates roughly the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds from 15N to 18N W of 130W. Seas are 8 ft within these winds. For the forecast, an area of fresh to strong trade winds will persist over the west-central waters over the next 24 hours. A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the west of the area near 30N150W late this week. To the east of this low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will likely affect the far NW waters Thu night into the weekend. Large NW swell will propagate across much of the area Thu through Sat, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 115W and as far south as the equator. Seas could exceed 12 ft west of 135W and north of 15N. Conditions will begin to gradually improve late this weekend. $$ GR