618 AXPZ20 KNHC 221532 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across the Gulf of Panama to a 1011 mb low pressure located near 09.5N87W to another 1011 mb low pressure situated near 08N108W to 12N130W. A surface trough is analyzed from 15N132W to 09N138W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 10.5N between 83W and 87W and from 06N to 09N between 90W and 110W. Similar convection is near 13N92W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A strong high pressure ridge over Texas and eastern Mexico extends southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental, inducing strong to near gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 9 to 12 ft in the area. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh northerly winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with moderate winds farther south in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in the northern Gulf of California, and across the offshore waters of Baja California, and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning before gradually diminishing afterward. Seas of 9-12 ft will persist through today, then drop below 8 ft by Wed night. Winds in the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate this afternoon through Wed. Strong high pressure over the Great Basin will induce an extended period of fresh to strong NW to N winds over the entire Gulf of California from Thu through Fri night. These winds could spread to the waters W of Baja California Thu night and Fri from the NE, through the gaps in the mountains over Baja California. Looking ahead, strong to near gale force N winds are forecast to return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo region with seas of 6-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Earlier altimeter data showed seas up to 7 ft in these waters. Gentle winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. The exception is well offshore of western Guatemala, where seas of 7-8 ft are likely occurring due to swell from a Gulf of Tehuantepec wind event. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE-E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through Thu. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will subside this morning across the waters well offshore Guatemala. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period, with seas subsiding some Fri and Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1027 mb located near 33N141W dominates the waters N of 17N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains an area of fresh to locally strong winds from 15N to 18N W of 130W. seas area 8 to 9 ft within these winds. The most recent satellite derived wind data showed moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to 02N, between 90W and 110W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds seas of 4-7 ft are present. For the forecast, little change is expected to the winds and seas across the area through Wed night. A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the west of the area near 30N150W late this week. To the east of this low pressure system, fresh to strong SE to S winds will likely affect the far NW waters Thu night into the weekend. Large NW swell will propagate across much of the area Thu through Sat, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 116W and as far south as 02N. Seas could exceed 12 ft west of 135W and north of 15N. Conditions will begin to gradually improve late this weekend. $$ GR