725 AXPZ20 KNHC 220847 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Nov 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Costa Rica near 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09.5N87W to 1012 mb low pressure near 07.5N108W to 11N120W to 12.5N130W to 11.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 09N between 77W and 81W, and from 06N to 16N between 83W and 111W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the monsoon trough west of 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A strong high pressure ridge over Texas and eastern Mexico extends southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental, inducing strong to near gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 9 to 12 ft in the area. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Expect this activity to continue through today. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show fresh NNW winds in the northern Gulf of California with moderate winds farther south in the Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 4 ft in the northern Gulf of California, 4 to 5 ft west of Baja California and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning before gradually diminishing afterward. Seas of 9-12 ft will persist through today, then drop below 8 ft by Wed night. Winds in the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate this afternoon through Wed. The gradient between a strengthening high pressure ridge over Utah on Thu combined with much lower pressures over northern Mexico will induce an extended period of fresh to strong NW to N winds over the entire Gulf of California from early Thu through Fri night. These winds could spread to the waters W of Baja California Thu night and Fri from the NE, through the gaps in the mountains over Baja California. Looking ahead, strong to near gale force N winds are forecast to return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo region with seas of 6-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Earlier altimeter data showed seas up to 7 ft in these waters. Gentle winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. The exception is well offshore of western Guatemala, where seas of 7-8 ft are likely occurring due to swell from a Gulf of Tehuantepec wind event. For the forecast, fresh NE-E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then pulse through the middle of the week. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec wind event will subside this morning across the waters well offshore western Guatemala. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period, with seas subsiding some Fri and Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge stretches across the subtropical eastern Pacific waters, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics, especially north of 20N and east of 130W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains a large area of fresh NE to E winds west of 115W, and north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 20N. West of 130W, these winds extend as far north as 26N. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Recent ASCAT satellite data show moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough to 02N, between 90W and 110W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds seas of 4-7 ft are present. For the forecast, little change is expected to the winds and seas across the area through Wed night. A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the west of the area near 30N and 150W late this week. To the east of this low pressure system, fresh SE to S winds will likely affect the far NW waters Thu night into the weekend. Large NW swell will propagate across much of the area Thu through Sat, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 116W and as far south as 02N. Seas could exceed 12 ft west of 135W and north of 15N. Conditions will begin to gradually improve late this weekend. $$ Hagen