170 AXPZ20 KNHC 220354 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Nov 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1029 mb high pressure over Texas continues to extend a strong surface ridge southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental, inducing near gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with a small area of gale force winds forecast to persist through this evening. Then, strong to near-gale force winds will continue through Wed morning before gradually diminishing afterward. Seas of 10-12 ft will persist through Tue, then drop below 8 ft by Wed night. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Costa Rica near 10N86W to 1008 mb low pressure near 09.5N87.5W to 1009 mb low pressure near 08N107W to 12N115W to 13N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 77W and 88W, and from 11N to 15N between 91.5W and 95.5W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04.5N to 16N between 95.5W and 114W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 118W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to Special Features section above for details on an ongoing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Satellite imagery shows scattered thunderstorms occurring just SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, offshore the Mexico/Guatemala border. Expect this activity to continue into Tue. Farther north, a surface ridge prevails over the Baja California offshore waters, inducing gentle N winds and 4-5 ft seas to the west of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail over the Gulf of California with 2 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh N winds are off Cabo Corrientes with 6 ft seas. Elsewhere offshore Mexico to the west of the Tehuantepec region, gentle W to NW winds are likely occurring. Recent altimeter data in this area show seas of 5-7 ft. For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate Tue afternoon through Wed. The gradient between a strengthening high pressure ridge over Utah on Thu combined with much lower pressures over northern Mexico will induce an extended period of fresh to strong NW to N winds over the entire Gulf of California from late Wed night through the end of the work week. These winds could spread to the waters W of Baja California Thu night and Fri, from the NE, through the gaps in the mountains over Baja California. Elsewhere, the current Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will subside by Wed night. Another gap wind event is possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo region. Seas in the waters described are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Recent altimeter data show seas of 6-7 ft in these waters, except up to 8 ft well offshore Panama and Costa Rica. Gentle winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. The exception is well offshore of western Guatemala, where seas of 7-8 ft are likely occurring due to swell from a Gulf of Tehuantepec wind event. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE-E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then persist through the middle of the week. Fresh NW winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama late tonight into Tue. Wave heights up to 8 ft will persist across the Guatemala offshore waters through tonight due to swell generated from a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period, with seas subsiding some Fri and Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge stretches across the subtropical eastern Pacific waters, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics, especially north of 20N and east of 130W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain a large area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds west of 115W, and north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 20N. West of 130W, these winds extend as far north as 26N. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 110W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas closest to the outermost reach of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event in N to NE swell. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, little change is expected to the winds and seas across the area through Wed night. A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the west of the area near 30N and 150W late this week. To the east of this low pressure system, fresh to strong southerly winds will likely affect the far NW waters Fri into the weekend. Large NW swell will propagate across much of the area Thu through Sat, sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 115W and as far south as the equator. Seas could exceed 12 ft west of 135W and north of 15N. Conditions will gradually improve late this weekend. $$ Hagen