000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212142 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Nov 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2105 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1030 mb high pressure over Texas sustains near gale to gale force N-NE winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with fresh to strong winds extending downstream to 10N. Seas in the Tehuantepec region are 8-12 ft and little change is forecast today. Gale force winds are expected to end late tonight. However, strong to near gale force winds with occasional gusts to gale force will continue through Wed morning, gradually diminishing afterward. Seas will drop below 8 ft by Wed night. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NE Costa Rica near 11N86W to 07N100W to a 1008 mb low pres near 12N118W to another 1008 mb low pres near 10N138W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 13N and E of 96W. Similar convection is found from 04N to 16N and between 100W and 115W and from 08N to 16N and W of 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to Special Features section above for details on an ongoing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally northerly winds in the northern Gulf of California, while moderate northerly winds prevail in the remainder of the Gulf waters. Seas in the 3-5 ft range prevail in the Gulf. The satellite-derived wind data also indicate that light to gentle NW-N winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja California waters. The exception are moderate to locally fresh NE winds near and west of the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas in the offshore waters of Baja California are in the 4-6 ft range, with the highest occurring near the strongest winds. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are found in the offshore waters of SW Mexico, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere in the offshore waters of Mexico, excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds in the northern Gulf of California will prevail through most of the week, increasing to fresh to strong speeds late in the week and extending into the central Gulf waters. Seas will build to 6 ft by Thu. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will push through the gaps of the Baja California peninsula on Fri, reaching the offshore waters. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is possible by Fri night or early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo region. Seas in the waters described are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough as seen on a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are also 5-7 ft in these waters. Gentle variable winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. The exception is well offshore of western Guatemala, where seas of 7-10 ft are likely occurring due to swell from a Gulf of Tehuantepec wind event. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds will persist through the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh NW winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama tonight into Tue. Wave heights over 8 ft will persist across the Guatemala offshore waters through late Tue morning due to swell generated from a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge stretches across the subtropical eastern Pacific waters and dominates the tropical eastern Pacific, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics. A weak surface trough extends from 18N111W to 14N113W and a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted to the east of the trough axis. The tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain a large area of moderate to fresh easterly winds, primarily from a line from 29N140W to 17N110W to 10N140W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. The strongest winds and high seas are occurring in the western waters, W of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are evident south of the monsoon trough, mainly E of 110W and W of 130W. Seas in the described waters are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas in the waters closest to the outermost reach of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, little change is expected to the winds and seas across the area through Wed. Fresh easterly winds will continue north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 23N and west of 125W. A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the west of the area near 30N and between 145W-150W late this week. Fresh to strong winds and large NW swell will affect the far NW waters Fri into weekend. Seas may exceed 12 ft to the west of 135W. Conditions will gradually improve late this weekend. $$ DELGADO