000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211555 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Nov 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1555 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1029 mb high pressure system over NE Mexico is supporting gale force N to NE winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with strong to near gale force winds extending downstream to 11N. Seas in the Tehuantepec region are in the 8 to 13 ft range and are forecast to continue through today. Gale force winds are forecast to end late tonight. However, strong to near gale force winds will continue through Wed morning, gradually diminishing afterward. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N100W to a 1008 mb low pres near 13N114W to 12N130W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to Special Features section above for details on an ongoing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A tight pressure gradient between a strong high pressure system over the Great Basin of the United States and lower pressures in the Gulf of California result in fresh to strong northerly winds across the northern and central portions of the Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present in the southern Gulf. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are evident in the offshore waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are found in the offshore waters of SW Mexico, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere in the offshore waters of Mexico, excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California will continue through midday today with seas 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds extending to the entrance of the Gulf of California will prevail through tonight. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will gradually diminish Wed through Thu. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to return to the Gulf of California late in the week. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is possible by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly trade winds persist across the Papagayo region, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are found south of 08N. Seas in these waters are also 5-7 ft. Gentle variable winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. The exception is well offshore of western Guatemala, where seas of 7-10 ft are likely occurring due to swell from a Gulf of Tehuantepec wind event. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through tonight, with moderate to fresh winds persisting through the middle of the week. Fresh NW winds may develop in the Gulf of Panama tonight into Tue. Wave heights of 7-10 ft will persist across the Guatemala offshore waters through today due to swell generated from a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge northwest of the eastern tropical Pacific continue to dominate the remainder of the area. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are evident north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 29N and W of 110W. The strongest winds are noted on the western portion of the basin, W of 125W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft with the highest seas near 14N130W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, little change is expected to the winds and seas across the area through Wed, with fresh trades continuing north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 23N and west of 125W. A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the west of the area near 30N and between 145W-150W late this week. Large NW swell from this system is likely to move across the forecast waters late this week into the weekend, with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. Seas may exceed 12 ft to the west of 135W. $$ DELGADO