000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over NE Mexico is supporting gale force N to NE winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with strong to near gale force winds extending downstream to 11N. Seas in the Tehuantepec region are in the 8 to 14 ft range and are forecast to continue through today. Gale force winds are forecast to end late tonight. However, strong to near gale force winds will continue through Wed morning, gradually diminishing afterward. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to 07N98W to 13N111W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 77W and 100W and from 11N to 15N between 121W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to Special Features section above for details on an ongoing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong NW winds continue across the northern Gulf of California with seas 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are elsewhere across the Gulf of California with seas 3-4 ft, except 5 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate N winds and 4-6 ft seas in NW swell prevail W of Baja California. A recent ASCAT satellite pass shows fresh N winds near Cabo Corrientes, where seas up to 7 ft are likely occurring. Gentle winds and seas near 6 ft prevail elsewhere in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California will continue through midday today with seas 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds extending to the entrance of the Gulf of California will prevail through tonight. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will gradually diminish Wed through Thu. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to return to the Gulf of California late in the week. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is possible by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are likely ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas to 6 to 7 ft in SW swell. Moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South America offshore waters south of the monsoon trough with seas 6 to 7 ft in SW swell. Gentle variable winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. The exception is well offshore of western Guatemala, where seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely occurring due to swell from a Gulf of Tehuantepec wind event. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through tonight, with moderate to fresh winds persisting through the middle of the week. Fresh NW winds may develop in the Gulf of Panama tonight into Tue. Wave heights of 7-10 ft will persist across the Guatemala offshore waters through today due to swell generated from a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging extends across the northern portion of the area. A 1011 mb low pressure is embedded along the monsoon trough near 12N130W, and this low shows up well on the latest ASCAT satellite wind data. The gradient between the low/monsoon trough and higher pressure to the north is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds from the monsoon trough to 23N and W of 125W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail in this broad region with the highest seas being in the vicinity of the low. Elsewhere N of 24N and W of 120W, winds are gentle to moderate from the NE with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. For the forecast, little change is expected to the winds and seas across the area through Wed, with fresh trades continuing north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 23N and west of 125W. A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to stall to the west of the area near 30N and between 145W-150W late this week. Large NW swell from this system is likely to move across the forecast waters late this week into the weekend, with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. Seas may exceed 12 ft to the west of 135W. $$ Hagen