000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210341 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Nov 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over NE Mexico is supporting gale force N to NE winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with strong to near gale force winds extending downstream to 12N. Seas in the Tehuantepec region are in the 8 to 14 ft range and are forecast to continue through Mon. Gale force winds are forecast to end Mon evening. However, strong to near gale force winds will continue through Wed morning, gradually diminishing afterward. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N86W to 07N99W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N113W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N129W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Colombia and Panama offshore waters from 05N to 09N between 77W and 80W, from 05N to 09N between 100W and 109W, and from 10N to 15N between 122W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to Special Features section above for details on an ongoing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong high pressure in the U.S. Great Basin continues to support fresh to strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California with seas to 5-6 ft. Fresh NW winds are elsewhere across the Gulf of California with seas 3-4 ft, except 5 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across the region continues to support gentle to moderate NW winds along with 5-6 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California will continue through midday Mon with seas around 6 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds extending to the entrance of the Gulf of California will prevail through early Tue morning. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will gradually diminish during the middle of the week. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to return to the Gulf of California late in the week. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale is possible by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas to 6 to 7 ft in SW swell. Moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South America offshore waters south of the monsoon trough with seas 6 to 7 ft in SW swell. Gentle variable winds and 5-6 seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. The exception is well offshore of western Guatemala, where seas of 7 to 9 ft are likely occurring due to swell from a Gulf of Tehuantepec wind event. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through Mon night, with moderate to fresh winds persisting through the middle of the week. Fresh NW winds may develop in the Gulf of Panama Mon night into Tue. Wave heights will build to 7-10 ft across the Guatemala offshore waters through Mon due to swell generated from a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging extending from a 1025 mb high pressure near 35N130W extends across the northern waters. Four low pressures of 1011 mb are embedded along the monsoon trough. This pattern setup continues to support a broad area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 12N to 24N and W of 120W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail in this broad region with the highest seas being in the vicinity of the lows. Elsewhere N of 24N and W of 120W, winds are gentle to moderate from the NE with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. For the forecast, a strong cold front will stall just NW of 30N140W Wed night. Large NW swell from this system will propagate across the area Thu through Sat with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. Otherwise, some low pressures embedded in the monsoon trough will dissipate while others move westward, thus enhancing the winds to fresh speeds and maintaining the seas in the 7 to 8 ft range W of roughly 125W. $$ Hagen