000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201600
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Nov 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building 
behind a cold front moving across the SW Gulf of Mexico is
supporting gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with
fresh to near gale force winds extending downstream to 12N. Seas
in the Tehuantepec region are in the 8 to 12 ft range and are
forecast to build up to 14 ft today through Mon morning. Gale
force winds are forecast to diminish late Mon morning/early
afternoon. Fresh to near gale force N to NE winds will then
prevail through Wed morning and gradually diminish afterward. 
For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N102W to 14N112W to
10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W to 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 10N to 18N between 101W and 118W, and
from 07N to 14N W of 123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to Special Features section above for details on an ongoing
gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Strong high pressure in the Great Basin continues to support  
fresh to strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California 
with seas to 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across 
the region is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds along with 
4-5 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell. 

For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds will increase 
to gale force by this morning and continue through Mon afternoon.
Afterward, strong to near gale force N to NE winds are forecast 
to gradually diminish on Wed afternoon and become light to gentle
on Thu. Fresh to strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of 
California will continue through tonight with building seas to 8
ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds will extend to the entrance of 
the Gulf of California today and prevail through early Tue 
morning. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are forecast to 
prevail elsewhere. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo 
region with seas to 7 ft in SW swell. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South America 
offshore waters south of the monsoon trough with 3 to 6 ft in SW 
swell. Gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly NE to E winds will
persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua
through the middle of next week, increasing to strong speeds at 
night. Wave heights will build to 7 ft across the Guatemala and 
El Salvador offshore waters tonight through Tue due to swell 
generated from a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere 
through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad surface ridging extending from a 1026 mb high near 32N136W
cover the high seas waters to 18N and W of 115W. Three low pressures
of 1011 mb are embedded along the monsoon trough. This pattern
setup continue to support a broad area of moderate to fresh NE to
E winds from 10N to 24N and W of 120W with 6 to 8 ft seas as
shown by recent altimeter data. Elsewhere N of 24N and W of 120W,
winds are gentle to moderate from the NNE with seas in the 3 to 5
ft range.   

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW forecast waters
Tue morning but remain mainly across the northern waters while 
it drifts eastward towards the Baja California Norte offshore 
waters by Tue night before weakening. A stronger cold front will
follow entering the NW region by Wed afternoon along with long 
period NW swell extending across the region Thu through the
weekend with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. Otherwise, low
pressures embedded in the monsoon trough will move westward and
continue to enhance fresh winds and seas in the 7 to 8 ft W of
roughly 125W.

$$
Ramos