000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Nov 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the western Gulf of Mexico and will continue moving SE through the weekend. Strong high pressure building behind the front will lead to gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Sun morning and continuing through Mon afternoon. Seas during the gale event will build up to 14 ft. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to low pres near 09N102W 1010 mb to low pres near 13N111W 1010 mb to 09N129W. The ITCZ continues from 09N129W to low pres near 09N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 16N between 106W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to Special Features section above for details on a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event with developing gale forecast to begin Sun morning. Strong high pressure in the Great Basin continues to support fresh to strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California with seas to 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds along with 3-5 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds will prevail across the Tehuantepec region overnight, increasing to gale force by Sun morning and continue through Mon afternoon. Afterward, strong to near gale force N to NE winds are forecast to gradually diminish on Wed afternoon and become light to gentle on Thu. Fresh to strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California will continue through Sun night with building seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds will extend to the entrance of the Gulf of California on Sun and prevail through early Tue morning. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are forecast to prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South America offshore waters south of the monsoon trough with 3 to 6 ft in SW swell. Gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly NE to E winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua through the middle of next week, increasing to strong speeds at night. Wave heights will build to 7 ft across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sun night through Tue due to swell generated from a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging persists north of 15N and W of 110W, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds N of the monsoon rough/ITCZ to 26N and west of 120W, with 5 to 8 ft seas per latest altimeter data. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere over the open waters N of 23N. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds and seas to 8 ft are S of the ITCZ W of 110W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail through next week across most of the basin as a reinforcing NW swell moves in. Seas will build to 8 ft near the ITCZ west of 125W by mid week as high pressure north of the area supports a broad area of fresh trade winds, and mixes with the decaying swell. A long-period NW swell will enter the NW corner of the basin by the end of the week supporting moderate to rough seas mainly N of 22N and W of 125W. $$ ERA