000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192153
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across
the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Strong high pressure building behind
the front will lead to gale force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec starting Sun morning and continuing through Mon early
in the afternoon. Seas during the gale event will build up to 14
ft. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N100W to 11N117W to 
09N128W. The ITCZ continues from 09N128W to 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 14N to 17N between 103W and 112W, and
from 07N to 13N W of 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to Special Features section above for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event with developing gale forecast to 
begin Sun morning.

Strong high pressure in the Great Basin continues to support  
fresh to strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California 
with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across 
the region is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds 
along with 3-5 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell. 

For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds will reach gale
force on Sun morning across the Tehuantepec region and continue 
through Mon afternoon. Afterward, strong to near gale force N to 
NE winds are forecast to gradually diminish on Wed afternoon and
become light to gentle on Thu. Fresh to strong NW winds across 
the northern Gulf of California will continue through Sun night 
with building seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds will 
extend to the entrance of the gulf this evening and prevail 
through early Tue morning. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds 
are forecast to prevail elsewhere. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo 
region with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South America 
offshore waters south of the monsoon trough with 3 to 7 ft in SW
swell. Gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly NE to E winds will
persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua
through the middle of next week, increasing to strong speeds at 
night. Wave heights will build to 8 ft across the Guatemala and
El Salvador offshore waters Sun through Tue due to swell 
generated from a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere 
through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad surface ridging persists north of 19N and W of 119W, 
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds N of the monsoon/ITCZ to
25N and west of 120W, with 7 to 9 ft wave heights. Moderate to
fresh S to SE winds and seas to 8 ft are S of the ITCZ W of 117W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail 
into early next week across most of the basin as a reinforcing 
NW swell moves in. Seas will build to 9 ft near the ITCZ west of 
125W as high pressure north of the area supports a broad area of
fresh trade winds, and mixes with the decaying long-period 
swell. The SW swell will support seas building to 9 ft along and
south of 01S through this evening.

$$
Ramos