359 AXPZ20 KNHC 171512 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Nov 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a cold front moving through southern Gulf of Mexico is causing winds to reach gale-force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds and accompanying rough seas extending 300 nm downstream. These winds are expected to persist through Fri night, before diminishing as the airmass north of the area modifies and shifts eastward. Looking ahead, the next gale over the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin early Sun as another cold front moves across southern Mexico. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N82W to 09N119W. The ITCZ continues from 09N119W to 09N136W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 127W and 139W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 15N between 93W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure building southward through the SW U.S. is leading to strong winds in the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NE gap winds are occurring in nearshore waters W of Baja California. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds across the region, with moderate seas. For the forecast, gale-force gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late Fri as a cold front moves through southern Gulf of Mexico. Expect strong winds over the northern Gulf of California through this evening as high pressure builds north of the area over the Great Basin. Seas to 9 ft will build north of Isla Guadalupe on Fri-Sat in a NW swell. The next gale over the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Sun as a front moves across southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South America offshore waters south of 10N with 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. Gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly NE to E winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua into the start of next week. Wave heights will likely build to 7 ft beyond 90 nm off Guatemala through the end of the week due to swell generated from gale force gap winds nearby in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging persists north of 10N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 25N west of 110W, with 5 to 7 ft wave heights, although small pockets of seas to 8 ft are noted along the ITCZ and near outflow from sporadic convection. NW swell W of 135W is leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft N of 15N. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail through the start of next week across most of the basin as a reinforcing NW swell moves in. Seas will build to 9 ft near the ITCZ west of 120W as high pressure north of the area supports a broad area of fresh trade winds, and mixes with the decaying long-period swell. SW swell will support seas building to 9 ft along and south of 03.5S on Fri-Sat. $$ KONARIK