000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162020
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a 
cold front moving through southern Mexico is causing winds to 
reach gale-force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds and 
accompanying rough seas extending 300 nm downstream. The gale- 
force gap winds are expected to persist into Fri night before 
diminishing as the airmass north of the area modifies and shifts 
eastward. Looking ahead, the next gale over the Tehuantepec 
region is expected to begin early Sun as another cold front 
moves across southern Mexico. 

For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 10N115W. The ITCZ 
continues from 10N115W to 09N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is evident from 08N to 12N between
94W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed E
of 80W, offshore Colombia and including the Gulf of Panama.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

High pressure building southward through the SW U.S. is leading 
to strong winds in the northern and central Gulf of California.
Fresh NE gap winds have also developed in Sebastian Vizcaino 
Bay. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting mostly 
gentle to moderate winds across the region, with moderate seas.

For the forecast, gale-force gap winds are expected across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through late Fri as a cold front moves 
through southern Mexico. Expect strong winds over the northern 
Gulf of California through late Thu as high pressure builds north
of the area over the Great Basin. The next gale over the 
Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Sun as a front moves 
across southern Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere,  
gentle to moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South
America offshore waters south of 10N with 3 to 5 ft in SW swell.
Gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly NE to E winds will
persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua
into the start of next week. Wave heights will likely build to 7
ft beyond 90 nm off Guatemala through the end of the week due to
swell generated from gale force gap winds nearby in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere 
through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad surface ridging persists north of 10N, supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds from 10N to 25N west of 110W, with 5 to 7 
ft wave heights, although small pockets of seas to 8 ft are noted
along the ITCZ and near outflow from sporadic convection. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail 
into the start of next week across most of the basin as a 
reinforcing NW swell moves in. Seas will build near the ITCZ west
of 120W as high pressure north of the area supports a broad area
of fresh trade winds, and mixes with the decaying long-period 
swell.

$$
KONARIK