000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160845 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Nov 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a cold front moving through southern Mexico is causing winds to reach gale-force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Expect these winds and accompanying rough seas to extend 300 nm downstream by early Wed. The gale-force gap winds are expected to persist through late Fri before diminishing as the airmass north of the area modifies and shifts eastward. Looking ahead, the next gale event over the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Sun as a cold front moves across southern Mexico. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N115W to a 1011 mb low near 10N123W to 09N125W. The ITCZ continues from 09N125W to 09N132W, then resumes near 09N134W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 09N to 12N between 94W and 104W, and from 06N to 12N between 110W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure building southward through the SW U.S. is leading to fresh winds in the northern and central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds across the region, with moderate seas. For the forecast, gale-force gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late Fri as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. Expect strong winds over the northern Gulf of California through late Thu as high pressure builds north of the area over the Great Basin. The next gale event over the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin on Sun as a front moves across southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South America offshore waters south of 10N with 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. Gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly NE to E winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua through the weekend. Wave heights will likely build to 7 ft beyond 90 nm off Guatemala through the end of the week due to swell generated from gale force gap winds nearby in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging persists north of 10N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 25N west of 110W, with 5 to 7 ft wave heights, although small pockets of seas to 8 ft are noted along the ITCZ and near outflow from sporadic convection. West of 120W, a low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough generating scattered showers. Long-period NW swell and fresh winds are moving across the waters north of 25N and west of 135W with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail into the weekend across most of the basin as a reinforcing NW swell moves in. Seas will build near the ITCZ west of 120W as high pressure north of the area supports a broad area of fresh trade winds, and mixes with the decaying long-period swell. $$ ERA