795 AXPZ20 KNHC 160245 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a cold front moving through southern Mexico will cause winds to reach gale-force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting tonight. Expect these gap winds and accompanying rough seas to extend 300 nm downstream by early Wed. The gale-force gap winds are expected to persist through Fri before diminishing as the airmass north of the area modifies and shifts eastward. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 12N116W to 10N123W. The ITCZ continues from 10N123W to 09N131W, then resumes near 08N134W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 14N between 93W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico is initiating fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure building southward through the SW U.S. is leading to fresh winds in the northern and central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds across the region, with moderate seas. For the forecast, gale-force gap winds can be expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting tonight as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. Expect strong winds over the northern Gulf of California Wed through Thu as high pressure builds north of the area over the Great Basin. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South America offshore waters south of 10N with 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. Gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly NE to E winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua through late Sat. Wave heights will likely build to 7 ft beyond 90 nm off Guatemala through the end of the week due to swell generated from gale force gap winds nearby in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging persists north of 10N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 25N west of 110W, with mostly 5 to 7 ft wave heights, although with small pockets of seas to 8 ft near the ITCZ and near outflow from sporadic showers or thunderstorms. West of 120W, a low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough generating scattered showers. Long- period NW swell and fresh winds are moving across the waters north of 25N and west of 135W with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail into the weekend across most of the basin. Reinforcing NW swell will move in starting Wed. Seas will build near the ITCZ between 120W and 130W as building high pressure north of the area supports a broad area of fresh trade winds, mixing with the decaying long-period mixed swell. $$ ERA