000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151511 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure and denser air behind a cold front moving through southern Mexico will cause gap winds to gale-force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting tonight. Expect these gap winds and accompanying rough seas to extend 300 nm downstream by early Wed. The gale-force gap winds are expected to persist through Fri before diminishing as the airmass north of the area modifies and shifts eastward. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W to 10N98W to 09N125W. The ITCZ continues from 09N115W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 8N to 15N between 110W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient is supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds across the region, with moderate seas. High pressure building into the SW U.S. is forcing fresh NW winds into the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, gale-force gap winds can be expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting tonight as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. Expect strong winds over the northern Gulf of California late Wed as high pressure builds north of the area over the Great Basin. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South America offshore waters south of 10N with 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. Gentle variable winds with slight seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly NE to E winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua to late Sat. Wave heights will likely build to 7 ft beyond 90 nm off Guatemala by the middle of the week due to swell generated from gale force gap winds nearby in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging persists north of 15N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W, with mostly 5 to 7 ft wave heights, although with small pockets of seas to 8 ft near the ITCZ and near outflow from sporadic showers or thunderstorms. East of 120W a few small low pressure areas are analyzed along the monsoon trough generating scattered showers. Long-period NW swell and fresh winds are moving across the waters north of 25N and west of 135W with seas to 10 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail through late week across most of the basin. The long period swell will decay today, but reinforcing NW swell will move in starting Wed. Seas will build near the ITCZ between 120W and 130W as building high pressure north of the area supports a broad area of fresh trade winds, mixing with the decaying long- period NW swell. $$ KONARIK