157 AXPZ20 KNHC 141509 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Nov 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure and denser air behind a cold front moving through southern Mexico will cause gap winds to gale-force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Tue night. Expect these gap winds and accompanying rough seas to extend 300 nm downstream by early Wed. The gale-force gap winds are expected to persist into Fri before diminishing as the airmass north of the area modifies and shifts eastward. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W to 10N95W to 12N110W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 13N between 110W and 112W and from 07N to 11N between 126W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to diminish, along with associated rough seas. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are also diminishing over the northern Gulf of California, following a cold front moving across the region. Combined seas to at least 7 ft are observed off the northern coast of Baja California Norte, near Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, another round of gap winds can be expected by Tue night, likely reaching gale force, as another cold front moves through southern Mexico. Strong winds following a cold front over the northern Gulf of California are diminishing, but will return by late Wed following another cold front moving into northwest Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap winds have developed in and near the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, mainly moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South America offshore waters south of 10N with 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. Gentle variable winds with slight seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly NE to E winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua through Fri. Wave heights will build beyond 90 nm off Guatemala by the middle of the week due to swell generated from gale force gap winds nearby in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging persists north of 15N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W, with mostly 5 to 7 ft wave heights, although with small pockets of seas to 8 ft near the ITCZ and near outflow from sporadic showers or thunderstorms. East of 120W a few small low pressure areas are analyzed along the monsoon trough generating scattered showers. Long-period NW swell and fresh winds are moving across the waters north of 20N and west of 135W with seas to 11 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail through midweek across most of the basin. The long period swell will decay into mid week. Seas will build near the ITCZ between 120W and 130W as building high pressure north of the area supports a broad area of fresh trade winds, mixing with decaying long-period NW swell. $$ KONARIK