000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140321
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Nov 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N85W to 12N110W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident north of 10N
and west of 89W, from 09N to 14N between 107W and 115W, from 07N
to 09N between 135W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near-gale force gap winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are starting to diminish, along with associated rough
seas. Strong NW winds are also active over the northern Gulf of
California, following a cold front moving across the region.
Combined seas to at least 8 ft are observed off the northern
coast of Baja California Norte, near Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, another round of gap winds can be expected
by mid week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely reaching gale 
force, as another cold front moves through southern Mexico. 
The strong winds following a cold front over the northern Gulf 
of California will diminish overnight, but will return by late 
Wed following another cold front moving across the region. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly moderate S to SW winds are across the Central and South
America offshore waters south of 10N with 3 to 5 ft in SW swell.
Gentle variable winds with slight seas are elsewhere. A cluster
of thunderstorms has developed in the Gulf of Fonseca, likely due
to converging land breezes. A few showers and thunderstorms are
noted off the coast of Nicaragua, and near the Nicoya Peninsula
of Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly NE to E 
winds will develop in the Papagayo region tonight and continue 
through the Fri. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist 
south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period along 
with slight to moderate seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad surface ridging persists north of 15N, supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W, with mostly 5
to 7 ft wave heights. East of 120W a few small low pressure 
areas are analyzed along the monsoon trough generating scattered
showers. See the monsoon trough/ITCZ section for details on
convection. Long-period NW swell and fresh winds are moving 
across the far northwest open into the waters north of 20N and
west of 135W with seas to 11 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will 
prevail into at least midweek across most of the basin. The long
period swell will decay through mid week. Seas will build near
the ITCZ between 120W and 130W as building high pressure north of
the area supports a broad area of fresh trade winds, mixing with
decaying long-period NW swell.

$$
Christensen